SDSU-BYU, 1/26/2011 Part II

SDSU's Backcourt
PG D.J. Gay; Senior; 12.8 Points/Game, 3.2 Assists/Game, .7 Steals/Game
SG Chase Tapley; Sophomore; 8.2 PPG, 2.2 APG, 1.4 SPG
SG James Rahon; Sophomore; 7.3 PPG, .7 APG, .4 SPG

BYU's Backcourt
PG Jimmer Fredette; Senior; 26.7 PPG, 4.4 APG, 1.3 SPG
SG Jackson Emery; Senior; 13.0 PPG, 2.6 APG, 2.6 SPG

Leadership
D.J. Gay, Jimmer Fredette, and Jackson Emery are all leaders, in their own way, on the floor.  The three seniors taking the floor together is about as good a threesome of guards on the court at any time in the history of the MWC.  Gay has been shooting the ball better this season, and he has helped the team keep their calm in tough road games, scoring 30 points at New Mexico and playing 38 minutes at Gonzaga.  His steadiness has allowed SDSU to win those games it usually loses (a game at BYU falls in that category as well: last win was 6 seasons ago, by two points after Mike Hall missed-or was fouled, depending on whom you ask-on a buzzer-beater to win).  Jimmer has done it with scoring and with passing.  He has scored 30 or more 6 times this season and has 10 games of 5 or more assists.  Jackson has hit more clutch shots through 20 games this season than any BYU player in the last 20 years.  Jimmer may be the "Baby-Faced Assassin" but Jackson is the Run-Stopper.  The Aztecs will go on a few of those, Jackson will need to continue to be nails.

How They Match Up
Much like the discussion on the bigs is dominated by SDSU, the little guys swings in favor of BYU.  The duo of Fredette and Emery outscore the trio of Gay, Tapley, and Rahon by over 10 points/game.  They also get 1.0 more assists, 1.0 more rebounds and 1.4 more steals.  Again, that is two BYU players to three SDSU players.

How SDSU Wins the Guard Matchup
Essentially, the same way the BYU bigs win: by not allowing Jimmer and Jackson to control the game.  They need to find Jimmer and Jackson in open space and prevent them from running.  D.J. Gay is not a good enough defender to stop Jimmer by himself.  It will be a team effort (and I wouldn't be shocked to see Tapley get the lion's share of time trying to stay in front of Fredette).  But Gay does need to focus more effort on the defensive side of the floor and let his bigs focus on putting up points.  Gay, Rahon, and Tapley hitting a few threes would also spread the floor, giving the bigs more room to operate.

How BYU Wins the Guard Matchup
Jimmer and Jackson need to push the action.  They need to combine for 45 or 50 points.  Jackson needs to hit threes to open up the floor.  His defense will also be crucial: he needs to deny the big men easy entry passes.  If he can come away with 3 or 4 steals, BYU will be able to get in transition and try to run the Aztecs out of the gym.  Jimmer will probably not be guarded exclusively by D.J. Gay as Jimmer has 25 points on him, so he'll need to recognize who is on him and take advantage of his mismatches: muscle up on, and/or shoot over, Gay, penetrate on Rahon, Tapley, and anyone else that SDSU throws at him.

Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU will not do better than BYU at the guard line.  If they do, SDSU wins by double digits, and probably by 20 or more.  SDSU has the experienced point guard to make a difference in this road game, but, unfortunately, his defense is not his strong suit.  SDSU needs a solid defender to win this battle with two great scorers on the opposite side.  BYU isn't going up against great scorers on the opposite side, but they happen to have a great defender.  The other wild card for SDSU: two talented, but young guards alongside Gay.  How will they perform in this hostile environment?  Tapley did well at New Mexico but poorly at Gonzaga.  Rahon did well at Gonzaga, but was average at New Mexico.  This is a big stage and they are going to see a big-time defender in Jackson Emery.  They cannot be inconsistent (or poor all of the time), which is what usually plagues more inexperienced players.  If they both play well together?  BYU fans probably don't want to see the result of that.  Experience at home vs. athleticism on the road?  I'd rather have BYU's guards.  But then again, I'd rather have SDSU's big men...which will prevail?

The Broadcast
The first of two battles for the MWC crown starts at 8:15pm Mountain Time, Wednesday night, on CBS-College Sports.  Round two: exactly one month later on February 26th, on CBS (like the regular CBS) at noon Mountain Time.  Put it on the calendar now and don't double-book yourself.  For those debating making a trip to SoCal in February, I'll save you the trouble: it's already sold out.