MWC Hoops Preview, 2011

Reminiscence
This is the final year of the MWC.  I know that it will continue to exist, but it will no longer be the Mountain West as we know it.  Take out Utah and BYU in 2011.  Take out TCU in 2012.  Add Boise State in 2011.  Add Fresno State and Nevada in 2012.  Utah and BYU have produced some of the best teams in the 11 years of MWC basketball.  TCU has had some big upsets and nearly pulled off a few more.

This is the final ride.  This is the last year that three MWC teams can make the NCAA Tournament.  Without BYU and Utah, and with Boise State, there are not enough quality wins available for UNLV, SDSU, and New Mexico to get in conference play to make a push for at-large bids.  The three programs also have a tendency to lose games it shouldn't lose.  They cannot make up for a loss to Wyoming with a win at home against BYU, or an MWC Tournament win against BYU.  Enough nostalgia, let's talk MWC hoops 2011.

The Competition
SDSU is a good team.  BYU is a disciplined team.  UNLV is a talented team.  New Mexico is a tough team.  Colorado State is a much improved team.  Air Force is a "Rudy" team.  TCU is a team on the rise.  Utah is a team that can be very good when it's clicking.  Wyoming is a team that plays at very high altitude.

That is currently the order in which their records place them: SDSU, BYU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, Air Force, TCU, Utah, and Wyoming.  The RPI has them as follows: BYU, SDSU, UNLV, New Mexico, Colorado State, TCU, Air Force, Utah, and Wyoming.

I think they fall into very defined groups.
The Contenders: SDSU, UNLV, BYU
The Pretenders: New Mexico, CSU
Not Horrible: TCU, Air Force, Utah
In A Class By Themselves: Wyoming

Why BYU, SDSU, and UNLV are Contenders
BYU and SDSU each have 6 wins against the RPI top 100.  UNLV has two wins against the top 50, including one on the road.  All three made the tournament in 2010.  All three return at least 6 significant contributors from those tournament teams of a year ago.  With the exception of UNLV's homecourt loss to UC-Santa Barbara, none of them have inexplicable losses.  Each team has at least 6 wins away from home.  Each has a huge homecourt advantage.  All three of these teams will go 12-4 or better in conference.

Why New Mexico and CSU are Not
New Mexico is 0-3 against the RPI top 100.  They are 4-3 away from home.  Their only road wins are against teams that would be 9th in the MWC.  CSU is 2-3 against the RPI top 100.  They are 5-3 away from home.  They lost by double digits at home to Sam Houston.  Their best double-digit win was against Northern Colorado at home.  When the dust settles, they will finish 11-5 or worse, CSU around 9-7 or 8-8.

Why TCU, Air Force, and Utah Can't Even Pretend
TCU has 5 losses outside of the RPI top 100.  They are 1-1 against the top 100.  They are 2-5 away from home.  Air Force's best win was against Sam Houston.  They have 2 losses outside of the RPI top 100.  They only have 3 wins against the RPI top 200.  They are 2-3 away from home.  Utah has two losses to teams in 200 and 300's in RPI.  They are 0-4 against the top 100.  They are 1-6 away from home.  One of them may go 8-8 in conference play, but the others will be 7-9/6-10.

Why Wyoming might be good
...

To me, it comes down to SDSU, UNLV, and BYU.

Why SDSU
Talent, length, athleticism.  They have scorers, slashers, shooters, rebounders, and defensive specialists.  Kawhi Leonard, Billy White, D.J. Gay, and Malcolm Thomas are all capable of going for 20 points on any given night.  Kawhi Leonard nearly averages a double-double.  They are taking better care of the ball this season and valuing their possessions more.
Why not SDSU
They always lose a home game in conference.  The MWC Champion is nearly always undefeated at home.  They also drop a road game to one of the bottom-feeder teams.  It's usually at Wyoming.  The MWC Champion only loses to other top 4 MWC teams on the road.  13-3 is the standard and SDSU usually falls short of that mark.

Why BYU
Jimmer, Jimmer, Jimmer.  How he does it is a bit of a mystery.  He's not terribly quick, he doesn't jump high, and he gets flustered with full-court pressure.  But he just finds ways to score.  Some nights he throws it up from 28 feet.  Others he gets into the lane and either finishes or gets free throws, or both.  Jackson Emery can shoot the three.  Kyle Collinsworth can penetrate.  Noah Hartsock can stretch the defense.  Brandon Davies can post guys up.  Abouo can do a little bit of everything.  Guys can come in off the bench and contribute on both sides of the floor.  They have only lost two conference home games in the 5 years of Dave Rose.
Why not BYU
Post defense is a weakness.  Davies and Hartsock often get in foul trouble.  James Anderson is not athletic enough to guard against the bigs of SDSU and New Mexico.  Chris Collinsworth has been hurt.  Other guys have played well, but not necessarily when Jimmer wasn't playing well.  Jimmer will have bad games (like he usually does at UNLV).  They weren't tough enough to win in the Pit or at the Thomas & Mack last year, and are even less physical this year.

Why UNLV
Because they are always in the discussion.  They can clamp down on defense like nobody else in the conference.  5 guys average 9 or more points a game.  They have Tre'Von Willis, who is the ultimate big-game, big-play guy.  He can shut-down any other team's best perimeter player for 40 minutes.
Why not UNLV
Rebounding: only one Rebel averages more than 5 boards per game.  Chemistry: the egos can come together for the big games, but can lose focus on the other ones.  Last season, they lost to four different teams in conference play, including an imploding Utah team twice.

Head-to-head
UNLV has a better chance of winning in Provo than SDSU, but they get BYU at a time when they are typically unstoppable at home: February.  SDSU has a better chance of winning at the Thomas & Mack than BYU, since they have done it in recent memory but have to do it with an early start time (5pm Pacific) just before Valentine's Day when they are missing their lady friends back home.  BYU has a better chance of winning on Montezuma Mesa than UNLV, since they have played SDSU close the past three seasons and beat them twice in a row, but might be out for some vengeance after getting embarrassed by BYU in Provo last season in their most recent meeting.

My prediction
SDSU
BYU
UNLV
New Mexico
Colorado State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Wyoming

The inconsistency that typically plagues SDSU has not yet reared its head.  BYU is going to play in the most difficult venues in the MWC.  There has been a lot of animosity built up over the past 30 years against BYU sports.  This is the last time for the old WAC and current MWC members to have their say towards BYU's players, fans, and coaches.  Keep your eyes open for, and protect your families from, the few idiots in the crowd, should you attend any BYU road games this season in San Diego, Vegas, and Albuquerque.  UNLV is not a complete enough team to survive a 5-game stretch from January 25th through February 12th that includes at Wyoming, Utah, at BYU, at TCU, and SDSU.  A 3-2 record may not cut it, and they might even be 2-3.  New Mexico will probably be out front early on, but will falter as February progresses.  Colorado State could sweep everyone below them in the standings and get swept by everyone above them in the standings.  Utah will put it together enough to pull off a few upsets, but Boylen will fail to get his team motivated for a few games that he could/should win.  TCU doesn't have a big enough fan base to have a significant enough homecourt advantage in the MWC.  Air Force does have some good young players with experience, but they are still a year away.  Wyoming is going the wrong direction.

Let the games begin: Wyoming at CSU, 7pm Mountain Time kicks it off.  CSU wins it, 77-64.