State of MWC Hoops, 1/20/2011

The Elimination Game
And then there were three.  With losses last night, New Mexico and UNLV have been eliminated from contention for the MWC crown.  With a win last night at UNLV, Colorado State has planted itself firmly in the discussion.  The MWC Champ will be, at worst, 13-3 and could be as good as 16-0 or 15-1 (though my money is still on 14-2).  Teams with 3 losses need to run off 11 straight wins to have any chance.  As I said, then there were three: SDSU, BYU, and CSU.  Here's a rundown of the three movers from last night (2 down and 1 up)

UNLV Runnin' Rebels: Down
UNLV has lost two conference home games already (without having played SDSU and New Mexico at home).  They have two games left against New Mexico, they have to travel to BYU and CSU (who both beat the Rebels at the Thomas & Mack), and have to play SDSU at home.  Playing a bunch of thugs has finally caught up with the Rebels, as this particular group has had chemistry issues from the start.  What was once a sure thing for them (an NCAA Tournament bid) may now be in jeopardy, particularly if they lose ANOTHER game on their home floor in the MWC Tournament.  The losses are starting to pile up now (5) for a team in a league that has about an 8- or 9-loss maximum for NCAA Tournament consideration.  They need to beat SDSU at home, and could probably use a road win against New Mexico and/or BYU.

New Mexico Lobos: Down and Out
New Mexico has now lost two road games to "bottom half" teams, first at Wyoming and now at Utah (a place where SDSU and BYU have victories). They also have lost a conference home game to SDSU. With 6 losses already and zero non-conference wins of note, their MWC Title and NCAA Tournament hopes are completely sunk at this point. They still have to play 4 regular season games against BYU and UNLV, plus road games at SDSU and CSU: they need to go 5-1 in those games, which they will not do.  And who is to say they couldn't lose at TCU or Air Force too.  I think, barring an MWC Tourney Championship, they are now officially NIT-bound (or worse).

Colorado State Rams: On the Up and Up with BYU Coming Up
CSU has matched BYU now with a win at UNLV.  They did lose at the Pit in New Mexico, but BYU still has that opportunity yet.  They have to play both BYU and SDSU twice (BYU at home this Saturday), get UNLV and New Mexico at home still, and have shown they can win at home against the rest of the bunch.  I still have some concerns about road games, as their best non-home win prior to UNLV was against Southern Miss, who is, at best, an NIT team, and probably not even that good.  As with UNLV, the number of losses is probably too great (5 already with 4 regular season games against top 10 teams remaining) for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.  They now have a road win to hang their hat on and can probably count on an NIT appearance, barring a major collapse to close out the season.