A Look at TCU
TCU is not necessarily a young team, but a lot of their players are making their first or second run through the MWC. They have several JC and other D-I transfers. As such, this will be their first game in a packed Marriott Center (at least I figure it will be packed with it being labeled "Jackson Emery Night" in Provo: it will certainly exceed the less-than-12k that attended last year's game in Provo). 3 of the 4 Horned Frogs that played at BYU before have scored in double figures there: G Greg Hill, G Ronnie Moss, and F Garlon Green. Though Nikola Cerina scored in double figures in the other two games against BYU last season: in Fort Worth and in Vegas in the MWC tourney.
To say that TCU always plays BYU tough is a bit inaccurate, since BYU usually wins by double-digits, but they do always play BYU tougher than they should. They have a lot of different scoring options and some of those options present what tend to be difficult matchups for BYU: they are not tremendously skilled basketball players but they are very athletic and play "higher" than BYU typically does. BYU is a below-the-rim type of team and TCU usually has some leapers, though this team really lacks that kind of guy in the post. TCU never really plays a true center, which could give Davies some matchup problems defensively. Their leading scorers are: G Ronnie Moss, F Garlon Green, G Sammy Yeager, and 5'9" G Hank Thorns, who all average over 9 points/game.
Though the player I believe that BYU fans will want to watch out for is SF J.R. Cadot, who has been wildly inconsistent but very good when he is on. Those are the types of guys who tend to get going against BYU and look like All-Americans: BYU fans know what I am talking about! He has had 7 games of 8 or more rebounds and had 5 games in double figures scoring. In conference play he has struggled, scoring only 11 points in 4 games, but he will be guarded by true freshman Kyle Collinsworth most of the night. If Collinsworth matches up well with him, I think BYU controls the game. Ronnie Moss would be the sexy pick for BYU to stop, but I think Moss will be easier to slow down than Cadot, given BYU's strengths. F Nikola Cerina is another one to watch. He probably wants to get a little revenge against BYU after some chippy moments in all three games against BYU/Chris Miles, and then fouling out in the MWC Tournament game after several "hard" fouls.
A Look at BYU
Besides Jimmer, who is a mismatch for most everyone in the MWC, Brandon Davies will be the one Cougar involved in a "mismatch" most of the evening. He should have the speed to move around Cerina and Nikola Gacesa and the size to take on Amric Fields, if he can stay out of foul trouble, which may be tough: Cerina and Gacesa are bigger than him and Fields is quicker than him...the mismatch works both ways.
With this being Jackson Emery night, will he perform well? How does he handle that pressure? Jimmer played well in the "Jimmer game" and we shall see if Jackson is equally nails in "his" game. We may see him come out a little overanxious early on, but my guess is he'll settle down eventually and play another solid game. With some of his 3-point makes at UNLV, it appears he has finally turned the proverbial corner.
I am still waiting for one guy to come off the bench and provide a consistent scoring threat. I keep waiting for Abouo or Rogers to be that guy and they have both looked out of sorts at times. It is amazing to see the Junior Wing Charles Abouo, who plays for his Ivory Coast National Team, look completely lost out there at times. He has played in 87 collegiate basketball games, but since the Vermont game, he seems totally out of sync with what the rest of the team is doing. Stephen Rogers transition hasn't been as surprising. He really doesn't have a position for BYU: not big enough to be a '4' and not quick enough to be a '3' for BYU's style. But he seemed to be coming along after solid games against Hawaii and Vermont, plus the solid outings against UTEP, Buffalo, Fresno-Pacific, and Air Force. Defensively, he's been pretty absent the entire season, having a few good rebounding games against the worst of BYU's opponents.
Prediction
I think the game, as usually typical with TCU, will be closer than it should be. But it probably should be a 20 or 25-point win. BYU will be looking to push tempo, as it seems pretty evident TCU could not match BYU score for score. They have been too inconsistent, especially in conference play, to have a guy go for 25 points or have 4 or 5 guys score in double figures. They would need one, or both, of those to happen to match BYU's scoring. Will BYU be rusty or rested, having not played in a week? With BYU, typically they come out lights out before the rust starts to show around minute 5-6, and then they pick it up to close out the first half. I don't see any reason why that shouldn't hold true Tuesday Night in the Marriott Center as well. It's probably 10-12 points by halftime, and 12-16 points for most of the second half. TCU finishes with a late run to cut it to down to 10 or 12, maybe even 8. BYU 83, TCU 72.
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