BYU-CSU Preview, 1/22/2011

Why This is No "Gimme" for BYU
This is a very dangerous game for BYU.  Not because it's a "trap game" or they are looking ahead or for any other reason than that they are playing a quality team, on the road, that is hungry and desperate to prove themselves.  Adding on that, there will be a sellout crowd out to support their CSU Rams for the final time at home against the hated BYU Cougars.

A Look at CSU
They have more talent and experience than in years past.  They start 3 seniors and 2 sophomores.  Their Forwards will be tough to guard with Andy Ogide and Travis Franklin.  Last year, Chris Miles and Noah Hartsock were able to shut down Ogide and Franklin with their size in the middle.  Can Davies step in and do the same?  There is not another body to pick up that assignment if he can't, or if he gets in foul trouble.  Guards Dorian Green and Adam Nigon have been through the battles before, and Iowa State transfer Wes Eikmeier has found a nice little nitche on the team as well.  Sharpshooter Jesse Carr can come off the bench for some instant offense (though only for short stretches).  Ogide, Franklin, and Eikmeier combined for 58 points against UNLV on Wednesday.  Those three take high percentage shots and make them at a high percentage.  Like BYU, they have lacked consistent bench scoring threats outside of the top 6.

A Look at BYU
BYU has been winning games big of late.  But I have noticed that the Cougars have looked a bit more selfish.  Jimmer has been forcing shots (in the 16 field goals he made against Utah, I think only 2 came off of passes: the rest were all one-on-one or one-on-two).  Davies has taken a few shots outside of the offense.  Even Emery has been taking (and, fortunately, making) a lot of contested outside shots.  If those shots don't fall today, can the Cougars adjust their game?  Dave Rose knows how to prepare his teams, he knows how to adjust, he knows how to win games.  So do Jimmer and Jackson and Noah.  But if Davies and Hartsock are contained by Ogide and Franklin, can Jimmer and Jackson continue to make contested long range shots all game long?  The odds are not in their favor that it will continue, and I think that is why they are in for a dogfight tonight in Fort Collins.  Jackson has been nails, hitting a lot of crucial shots this year.  Jimmer has obviously been the money.  But even MJ and Scottie had games where they were both missing.

BYU has looked like a team on a mission, however, for most of the season.  Can they really be denied by a team they have not lost to in ages, and by a team they have beat by 20+ points in 5 of the 7 games Jimmer has played against them (the closest game in the Jimmer era was 14 points).

Prediction
I think CSU will give certainly BYU all they want.  If it is decided by more than 7 points it is either Jimmer scoring 40 or Jimmer going 1 for 40.  BYU is clearly the better team.  CSU is probably the hungrier team, and basketball, more so than any team sport, can be decided by the size of the fight in the dog.  I think the Rams score the big upset today and enhance that NCAA Tournament resume, though I would be happy to be wrong and have BYU win.  Rams 81, Cougars 77.