SDSU-BYU, 1/26/2011 Part I

SDSU Front Line
SF Kawhi Leonard; Sophomore; 6'7" 225; 15.7 points/game, 10.3 rebounds/game
PF Tim Shelton; Junior; 6'7" 245; 2.1 points/game, 1.9 rebounds/game
PF Malcolm Thomas; Senior; 6'9" 220; 11.9 points/game, 8.1 rebounds/game, 2.1 blocks/game
PF Billy White; Senior; 6'8" 235; 9.7 points/game, 3.4 rebounds/game
C Brian Carlwell; Senior; 6'11" 300; 3.9 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game

BYU Front Line
SF Kyle Collinsworth; Freshman; 6'6" 210; 7.4 points/game, 4.0 rebounds/game
SF Charles Abouo; Junior; 6'5" 215; 5.3 points/game, 4.8 rebounds/game
SF/PF Stephen Rogers; Sophomore; 6'8" 195; 4.1 points/game, 2.3 rebounds/game
PF Logan Magnusson; Senior; 6'6" 210; 2.1 points/game, 2.2 rebounds/game
PF Noah Hartsock; Junior; 6'8" 230; 9.8 points/game, 5.8 rebounds/game, 1.6 blocks/game
C Brandon Davies; Sophomore; 6'9" 235; 11.3 points/game, 5.7 rebounds/game

Recent History
Billy White has played the most games of any SDSU Big Man against BYU: he is 2-5 overall and 0-3 in the Marriott Center.  He averages 8.3 points/game and 5.3 rebounds/game.  At the Marriott Center he averages 9.7 points/game and 5.0 rebounds/game.  Last year's game in Provo was not a very good game for the SDSU Big Men.  They tallied just 33 points and 18 rebounds (the season average was 39.4 PPG and 24.6 RPG).  Kawhi Leonard and Billy White were both sucking wind and pulled themselves out at crucial junctures in the second half.  With the nice scheduling break SDSU got from the MWC, getting a bye prior to playing BYU, they should be rested, which will help with altitude adjustment.

Noah Hartsock is the most experienced Cougar Big Man.  He is 2-0 at the Marriott Center, but has scored 0 points against SDSU at home.  In last season's dominating performance against SDSU in the Marriott Center, 5 current Cougar Big Men contributed.  Well, kind of.  The returning Cougar Big Men that played are Hartsock, Brandon Davies, Charles Abouo, Logan Magnusson, and James Anderson.  They played 55 minutes, scored 10 points, grabbed 11 rebounds, had 1 block and 1 steal, and committed 5 fouls.  I realize that the Backcourt is BYU's strength, but they will need more of a contribution from this group than that.  Though reproducing only five fouls would be a nice number.

How They Match Up
On paper, SDSU is completely dominant at the 3-5 spots (I only listed those averaging more than 10 minutes/game).  Carlwell could exploit Davies with his size.  White could exploit Hartsock with his quickness.  Leonard can exploit Collinsworth with his power.  If James Anderson enters the game, like last year, it is instant points for SDSU as they immediately throw the ball in to whomever he guards for a layup.  When Chris Collinsworth had season-ending surgery earlier this month, I looked at BYU's schedule and thought: SDSU is the only game (or two games, but I had marked the game at SDSU as a likely loss prior to the season anyway) that it is going to matter for BYU until probably the Second Round of the NCAA Tournament.  CSU tried to prove me wrong, but this is the one game where lack of depth upfront could kill BYU.

How SDSU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Play a halfcourt game.  Crash the offensive boards hard (and get them).  Force the issue in the middle and, as a result, get Davies and Hartsock to get in foul trouble.  Take the crowd out of the game by getting a lot of easy baskets from the big guys.  Defensively, they just need to contain the BYU bigs, 16 points or less is a good number.

How BYU Wins the Battle of the Bigs
Get out and run.  The same gameplan as last season: punish the Aztecs for sending too many guys to crash the boards, and too few back on defense.  Keep Davies and Hartsock out of foul trouble (mixing up man and zone, playing Abouo and Magnusson BEFORE these two get in trouble).  The crowd must stay in the game and have reasons to cheer, not just reasons to boo (foul calls).  It is all about the fast break for BYU: neutralize the bigs by making them run up and down the floor.

Who "Wins" the Battle?
SDSU clearly has the advantage and will get more production from their big guys.  However, the BYU Big Men don't need to outproduce the Aztecs to get a "win" in this positional battle.  BYU only needs to keep them from dominating the game and the glass.  Plus any offense BYU gets from the bigs in this game is just gravy.  With that said, is there enough confidence in the BYU bigs that they can keep White, Thomas, and Leonard under wraps?  I'd say in Cougar Nation there is not right now.  However, they do have the crowd, the altitude, and Jimmer on their side.  If Jimmer can get one or two of these guys in foul trouble with dribble penetration, it may be enough to swing the tide in the Cougars' favor.  If not, it's a toss-up.  One cannot underestimate the crowd factor though, particularly for players like Abouo and Davies.  They are much better players at home than on the road.