BYU-UNLV 1/5/2011

Happy New Year!  Cougars, welcome to Las Vegas for Game One of the MWC season.  BYU begins its final MWC journey in the same place it will end: the dreaded Thomas & Mack.  BYU's last win against UNLV at the T&M was 2005, Steve Cleveland's final season at the helm, a 9-21 season.  Every BYU team since that last win has been much better than the one that left victorious, but none have left with a W.  In 8 attempts.  Some have been excruciatingly bad, like a 70-41 setback in 2008.  Others have been excruciatingly frustrating, like the 75-74 loss in 2009, or the 70-66 loss in the MWC Tournament in 2010.

BYU Heading In
The Cougars are on a 4-game winning streak, averaging 86 points/game during that time.  They are heading in without backup PF Chris Collinsworth.  They played 9 of their last 10 Division I games away from home, winning 8 of the 9 non-home games.  Jimmer has scored over 20 points in 6 consecutive Division I games.  While it has been nearly a month since BYU's last "complete" game, they have still found ways to win in tough environments and in tough situations.  However, no team, no environment, no situation has been as tough as what tonight's matchup will be.

UNLV Heading In
The Runnin' Rebels have won 3 straight games, including a win over an 11th-ranked (albeit shorthanded) Kansas State on a neutral floor.  Their last two home wins have both been by over 20 points.  A lot of guys have been stepping up of late with scoring, rebounding, and, as always, playing defense.  This will be only their second game since before Christmas, so they should be rested (if not rusty).  But none of their recent opponents have commanded the discipline and fundamentally sound play that playing BYU does.

Prediction
Last season, BYU had as complete of a team as they have had under Coach Rose and lost to UNLV twice at the T&M.  UNLV brings back most everything from that team.  BYU lost its inside presence in Chris Miles, its hustle guy Tyler Haws, and its streaky shooter Jonathan Tavernari.  BYU has proved me wrong on a few occasions this season, winning games that BYU typically loses.  However, the UCLA game showed that it is still BYU, and they lose a majority of the 50-50 games away from home (and this is certainly one of those games).  But even still, BYU should probably win this particular game.  UNLV hasn't played much basketball the past 3 weeks.  Jimmer is on fire.  The bench has been playing decently well.  Emery has started hitting threes.  Hartsock, Davies, and Abouo are controlling the glass.

But if Jimmer is bringing it up the court with Tre'Von Willis in his face the whole way for 40 minutes, I do not like the Cougars' chances.  BYU has yet to make this adjustment against New Mexico and UNLV for some reason, and by the time Jimmer finally crosses half-court he is looking to get rid of the ball, just to avoid the pressure.  I think it is that Rebel defense, and the raucous Rebel home crowd, that make the ultimate difference, as they so often do in this game.  UNLV 71, BYU 65.  However, I do like BYU's chances in a rematch in the MWC Tournament.