BYU @ Utah, 1/11/2011

Hunstman Center History
You never know what you are going to get from BYU-Utah games up in the Huntsman Center.  Most of the time in recent memory, the games have been low-scoring, defensive affairs (or just bad offense on occasion).  Occasionally though, they end up like two years ago when the Utes won a 94-88 OT game.  Last season's game was 71-51.  Three years ago was a 55-52 BYU victory.

Utah Going In
The Utes' early season success has come to a grinding halt.  After a 7-3 start, they have lost 6 in a row.  During the 6-game losing streak, Utah is averaging just 65 points/game.  In the 10 games prior, they only scored less than 65 once, when they scored 64 at Michigan.

Will Clyburn has been playing all season long, averaging nearly 19 point and over 8 rebounds/game.  Josh Watkins started hot and has cooled off.  The team as a whole has been very streaky.  They have had a couple of games shooting over 50% from three-point range.  But they have also had several games under 30%.  But there have been even more games under 20% than there have been games over 50%: they are 32% on the season.

They just are not getting any consistent performance out of any single player outside of Clyburn.  Clyburn will be a tough player for BYU to defend.  He looked quick in the few snippets I've seen, but he's also very tall.  Too quick for Collinsworth and too big for Emery?  Maybe.  But if Watkins or Chris Kupets doesn't step up, Clyburn cannot carry the team to victory all by himself, as he has proved the last 6 games.

BYU Going In
The Cougars are coming into the game on a 6-game winning streak, with some atypical wins, including the win at UNLV last Wednesday and their second win in the state of New York this season.  They are averaging nearly 85 points/game during that stretch, with two 90-point or more games.  Jimmer has gone for over 30 a couple of times.  Jackson Emery has hit 6 three-pointers multiple times.  Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies have each achieved a double-double.  7 different players have scored in double digits in the 6-game streak.  BYU came in at 10/11 in the respective polls this week.  They are drawing love from national writers, bracketology forecasters, and college basketball junkies: BYU is coming into this game riding a wave that is almost unmatched in their history.

BYU has shown a distinct inability to play solid post defense without fouling.  Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are a solid 4-5 punch offensively, but one of them is inevitably in foul trouble without a reliable backup.  Stephen Rogers is too scrawny to play post defense.  Logan Magnusson is too short.  James Anderson is too uncoordinated.  Utah has lacked an ability to get points from their post players consistently, so BYU will have a nice break from that this game (or else make Foster or Washburn look like future lottery picks).  Jimmer has had one bad game against Utah, last year at the HC, but has averaged 18 points/game against Utah in his 6-game career against the Utes, compared to the 16 points/game he averages in his career (he didn't score much as a freshman, which brings his average down).

Prediction
I think we'll see a more average scoring performance for both of these teams, not the typical lower-scoring game where 60 points wins, or the wild 90 points required to win type of game.  BYU has been more consistent in their shooting for the most part this season.  They have played so many games away from home this season that the Huntsman Center will not seem a difficult place to score.  I would expect BYU to start a little faster than they have been, with Jimmer taking control of the offense: I wouldn't be surprised to see him with 4 assists or 10 points in the first 7 or 8 minutes of action.  Utah is going to have at least one player put together a phenomenal first half to keep them in it: first glance would say Clyburn, but I'd say Kupets off the bench is another candidate (or Washburn if the BYU bigs get in foul trouble).

Utah may have some good basketball ahead of them, and it may turn around Tuesday night, but Ute fans everywhere probably do not like their chances against the Cougars.  I like the Utes' chances for the game's middle 20 minutes, but the first 10 and the last 10 will probably belong to BYU.  BYU gets another road victory, BYU 77, Utah 65.