Building on Momentum
Winning against SDSU at home was big for BYU and gave them a lot of street credibility. But it doesn't mean nearly as much if they follow it up with a loss at New Mexico in the same week. Jimmer scoring 43 points against SDSU made national headlines, tweets, and sports talk radio. But if he follows it up with a 33% shooting, 20-point performance in a loss, people will turn all of the talk back on Sullinger and Walker. He can't just be The Jimmer at New Mexico, he needs to be The Jimmest. Again. This is a big game for BYU and a big game for The Jimmer. They have got to win it.
How Will New Mexico Try to Stop Jimmer?
Lost in Jimmermania and all the discussion about how nobody can stop Jimmer is the fact that Jimmer faces a nemesis from last year that he did not defeat: Dairese Gary. Gary is just as tall as Jimmer, but stronger and quicker. I do not believe New Mexico will just play him one-on-one all game, but I do believe that Gary will be draped all over him all game long. Jimmer last year struggled against that type of full-court body-up defense. This year, he hasn't really seen that physical, quick, strong PG like Jacob Pullen yet. You can bet that Dairese Gary will take the challenge. I think he will guard him for much of the game and do well. Unless Jimmer goes all Jimmer on him in the first half and then Phillip McDonald and Kendall Williams may get a chance...
How Can New Mexico Win?
I do not believe that they are a strong enough team defensively to try to out-defense the Cougars. Any team that had any semblance of scoring that the Lobos played scored in the 60's against New Mexico, and none of them had the offense of BYU. BYU will probably be able to score at least 70 points, if not 80, regardless of how hostile the crowd is. New Mexico is going to win by making outside shots and having their guards penetrate into the lane. In MWC play, they have not scored nearly as much inside, and I do not anticipate them doing too much of that against BYU with Hartsock, Davies, and Anderson. So the onus is on Gary, Phillip McDonald, and Drew Gordon to put up points from outside 12 feet. McDonald has made 2/3 of his three pointers at home, so if he gets going, he's the guy BYU will have to watch out for.
How Can BYU Win?
Unlike New Mexico, BYU plays good enough team defense to win this game with their defense. I think BYU needs to play solid man-to-man defense. New Mexico will kill the zone with threes and get the crowd in the game. Emery will most likely have the charge to keep Gary out of the lane. Hartsock will probably be on Drew Gordon, depending on New Mexico's lineup. He's the biggest potential mismatch that I see for BYU. I don't see Davies and Anderson having much trouble with Hardeman and Kirk, whose production has hit the tank with conference play. If BYU can get ahead early and stay ahead, their defense should win this game. Their offense will get their points. They just need to keep New Mexico at 70 or under.
Prediction
A lot of people are worried about a "letdown" from BYU. If this were not New Mexico, I might think they could have one. 6 of the top 8 players on BYU's roster went 0-2 against New Mexico last season. If the game comes down to the wire, they may be spent physically and emotionally and falter, but only if it's a two-possession game, or closer, in the final 3 minutes. BYU may start slow, but they will get back to playing BYU basketball at some point in the first half. New Mexico can't trade punch-for-punch with BYU. They may slow Jimmer a little bit, or Jimmer may look to get his teammates involved more. He may only end up with 20 points, but he would have 8 assists. Or he'll end up with 30+ points. Jimmer will do whatever it takes, and certainly enough, for BYU to win. Not comfortably, as there is no such thing as a comfortable win at the Pit, but a win nonetheless. BYU 79, New Mexico 70.
Other MWC Games
Wyoming at SDSU: Aztecs 79, Cowboys 51 (sucks to be Wyoming right now: 1-5 in conference with a game at SDSU and against BYU to finish. SDSU will make the Lambs of Laramie their next sacrifice)
Colorado State at Utah: Utes 77, Rams 71 (it officially becomes a two-horse race in the MWC after this one, with CSU falling 3 games off the lead. I think Utah has some good wins left in them still.)
Air Force at TCU: Falcons 65, Horned Frogs 58 (this would be the first Air Force conference road win since 2/23/2008)
UNLV gets a bye, and a chance to regroup before finishing up with Utah at home as round one through the MWC concludes Wednesday night.
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