MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Nine

Why it Matters
This is a big weekend for me: my preseason predictions are on the line.  I made two sets of predictions, the first right after spring ball ended, and another updated one just after week one.  My spring ball predictions look nicer right now, with the exception of UNLV and SDSU.  The links to those predictions are below.
Spring ball: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/04/mwc-football-outlook-2010.html
After Week One: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/09/thursday-thoughts.html

San Diego State at Wyoming
After spring ball, I picked Wyoming to win this game.  1 game into the season, I picked SDSU.  Right now, SDSU would appear to be the team to go with.  SDSU 5-2 on the season, while Wyoming is 2-6.  SDSU is scoring points.  They are stopping opponents from scoring.  Wyoming's offense only managed 10 points against BYU.  Their defense allowed BYU to score 25 points.  The weather is supposed to be decent for this game on the high plains of Laramie, so there goes one advantage.  They still have the altitude though.  There is no statistical reason for my selection, but I'm going with my gut.  Wyoming beats SDSU, 23-20.

New Mexico at Colorado State
Loser of this game is likely the 9th place finisher in the league.  I had New Mexico losing this in both predictions.  I see no reason to change that thought-process based on what I have seen.  CSU wins big at home, 34-10.

Utah at Air Force
I switched back and forth on this one in my predictions, having Air Force initially, then Utah after week one.  Utah looks the better team right now.  But if the game is close, Air Force has been more battle-tested.  In the midst of those tests, however, they lost the cog of their offense: Jared Tew.  TCU blew Air Force out on the road last week.  Will a little home-cooking be enough to reverse those fortunes?  There will be several thousand Ute fans in the stands for this one in Colorado Springs.  Will Air Force benefit from playing Utah a week before the big showdown against TCU?  Perhaps Utah is overlooking them.  Which side will win the key battle: the #1 rushing offense vs. the #6 rushing defense?  I am guessing there will be some give and take: Utah will give up more rushing yards than they are used to, Air Force will probably not rush for as much as they are used to.  Air Force probably needs to rush for about 300 yards or force 3 turnovers to have a chance to win this game.  Can they do that?  History suggests they can do one of those, but not both.  However, the games have all been close in the Whittingham era.  I do believe that this is probably the best team Utah has had under Whit, and, therefore, has the ability to blow the Falcons out (remember the 2008 team didn't start looking good until mid-November: they were winning games, but they weren't winning them decisively like this year's Utes).  I still do not know how to judge this Utah team though against a test like this.  They are definitely a very good team, but they'll need to be great to win Saturday in Colorado Springs.  I really feel like it is either going to be a blowout win for Utah or Air Force pulls out a close one.  Instead, I'll just go with Utah to win: 27-24.  Did I cover all of my bases there?  Utah, on a late field goal.  That's my final answer.

TCU at UNLV
Great team vs. bad team.  TCU has not looked as impressive (on either side of the ball) this season as they were last year (statistically speaking it's probably similar though), but they are starting to turn it on at the right time.  Even on the road, TCU wins by over 40 points: 45-3.

Bonus Pick
Things will be looking up for Boise State and TCU this weekend.  Oregon, Auburn, Michigan State, and Missouri all hit the road this weekend.  3 of them will lose, mark that down!  You heard it here first.  Boise cracks the top 2 in the BCS on Sunday night.  If Utah does win, they may even crack the top 5...maybe.