SDSU-BYU Preview

I am convinced that BYU just needs one play early in the game this weekend to change their fortunes for the season.  An interception, a sack, a big touchdown catch, or an amazing 50-yard open-field running play.  Any of those would do.  If that play happens, and happens early, I think the WHOLE TEAM would gain confidence and play with more swagger.  The dropped passes would go away.  The big plays against the defense would get stopped before they got started.  If that play happens, BYU should be able to muster enough confidence, effort, and execution the last 3 quarters to pull off a win.

However, then I look down the BYU roster.  No DB is close enough in coverage to get an interception (and even if ONE is, the other 3 probably aren't and the QB will go their direction).  No DL or LB is a good enough pass rusher to get a sack on his own (and bringing 6 or 7 isn't an option with some of the blown coverages they have had).  No WR has good enough hands to catch a big pass (and those skills deteriorate even further when in the red zone).  No RB is capable of breaking the big play AND getting into the end zone (watch JJ DiLuigi highlight videos and notice not many of those big runs result in TDs...).  They need somebody to make something happen, but I see very few players capable of making something happen.  Jacobson could do it.  JJ could do it.  Maybe.  If the offense improves a little, the defense will follow suit.  If the defense improves a little, the offense will put up more points too.

Without that play in the first quarter, or even the second quarter, I do not see how BYU competes in this game.  They are already a bit demoralized: if they get down 14-0, that "here we go again" mentality sets in, and when that happens: game over  BYU just does not have the skill on defense to continuously stop any decent offense, which SDSU certainly qualifies as.  Offensively, they are not executing well enough to march down the field and score at all, let alone 4 or 5 times in a game, and they do not have a big play threat on the roster to make a one-play drive.  (Or if they do have that guy, they have done a good job keeping him under wraps for 5 games.)

BYU Offense vs. SDSU Defense
SDSU has really only played one good offense and gave up 27 points on the road.  They have also got big, early leads and opponents have been forced to go throw-heavy.  It sounds very similar to BYU's season, only in reverse: get behind early and start chucking the ball all over the field.  The running game has been effective in spurts, but they have to throw so much in the second half and lose any balance they had.  If Jake Heaps has to throw over 50 times again, BYU is in trouble.  Ideally, BYU probably wants only about 30-35 attempts from him.  Realistically, BYU just has to start getting from the 40 to the 25 and get field goals instead of punts, or from the 30 to the 15 and take shots at the end zone instead of long field goals or failed fourth down attempts.  Most of their drives are stalling between the 40 and 30.  BYU's poor, predictable strategy to this point might actually work against SDSU: teams have success running the ball against SDSU inside the 30-yard line.  So as tempting as it might be to throw the fade, BYU would be better served to run the ball and go play-action pass, and test out one of those TEs crossing the middle of the field.  Realistically, BYU needs 24 points to have a chance in the game.  Without something big happening early, they will not get there.  If they can improve just a little bit, they can keep the Cougars in the game and give themselves a chance at winning.  But the question is: can they?

BYU Defense vs. SDSU Offense
Ryan Lindley really has not improved his accuracy this season.  That said, BYU has a way to make average QBs look like All Americans.  His completion percentage on the season is 54%.  BYU needs to keep him there, if he is up at 60% or higher, that is a 300-yard game waiting to happen.  He has two big, solid WRs, and he stares them down.  But, with Logan and Bradley, they could not stop those two even if they knew where the ball was going.  If, by some miracle, they do find a way to stop WRs DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown, they will also have to figure out how to stop RB Ronnie Hillman who is averaging 6.4 yards/carry and 133 yards and 2 TDs/game.  BYU is dead last in rushing defense in the nation.  Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky, Washington State, New Mexico State: all have stopped the run better than BYU this season.  Losing OLB Jordan Pendleton and playing an ailing, limping, contused SS Andrew Rich will not help that.  One thing I do know: they will play with passion this week.  But passion can lead to mistakes, and BYU, while playing uninspired, has made enough of those: add a few more of those and they are toast.  There is no logical reason to suppose that BYU can stop SDSU.  If having Bronco run practices and coach the defense can help them improve even a little bit, the defense can keep the Cougars in the game and allow the offense to maintain balance, and probably score more points as a result.  But the question is: will that help?

While I am not sold on SDSU being a good team, I am sold on BYU being a bad team.  Will Bronco's gamble with the defense pay off?  Will the return of O'Neill Chambers keep Luke Ashworth on the sideline enough for the offense to have a chance to score?  BYU COULD have gotten back on track this week,  But there are still so many questions.  To me, this is one of those games that BYU either plays well and wins a close one, or we see the same thing from them that we have seen all season and they get blown out.  I am leaning toward the latter, and by virtue of a coinflip, I have made my final decision.  Either BYU's record is going to improve, or my record of picking them is going to improve (we're both 1-4 right now): I am going with SDSU to beat BYU at homecoming in Provo, 31-13.

I hope I see that turning point play early in the game, the one that inspires this team to greatness.  The one that gets the offense rolling.  The one that gets the defense fired up.  The one that gets the team back to playing winning BYU football and guides them to a 24-21 victory over the Aztecs and preserves hope of going to a bowl game.  But, at this point, I'd have to see it (and a few replays of it afterwards) to believe it.