Thursday Thoughts

First off, it's prediction time.  By Thursday, we're all chomping at the bit for the weekend's games.  Before I go to individual MWC games, I am going to make my predictions about how the end-of-season MWC standings will look.

TCU will win the conference, they might lose a game, but it'll either be 7-1 or 8-0.  I anticipate an 11-1 season for them, which should be good enough for a BCS game, but we'll see.  I don't know who will beat them, but it's so tough to go undefeated, they have only done it once in recent history, so to think they could do it two years in a row is a bit unfathomable for me, even if they are the best team on the field in every game.
Air Force, BYU, and Utah all duke it out for second place.  I believe they will all go 1-1 against each other.  They probably all lose to TCU.  So the one (or two) that goes undefeated in their other 5 games will finish 2nd.  They all were beatable in their first game, but I expect large improvements this week from all three.
It's tough to pick against Utah here, especially given that they are the most likely to beat TCU or go 2-0 against Air Force and BYU.  They do play on the road against the 5th and 6th best teams in the conference (San Diego State and Wyoming), however.  Plus, their bye is the first weekend in October, so if things turn south late in the season at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, it'll be tough to recover for their final two conference games.
Air Force also plays on the road against the 5th and 6th best teams in the conference.  They have no bye during the season at all.  They play the "toughest" non-conference schedule: Oklahoma and TWO rivalry games against the other academies.  They usually wear down late in the season, but their final two conference games are New Mexico and at UNLV, so they should avoid the late-season conference woes they usually experience.
BYU gets the 5th and 6th toughest teams at home.  Bronco Mendenhall is 24-1 against the bottom 5, with the lone loss coming in his first season as coach.  But they have to play at Air Force, at TCU, and at Utah and, based on that, is probably the most likely team to go 0-3 against the other top four members and fall short of the 1-2 I project for all three teams.
Assuming TCU runs the table, assuming Air Force, BYU, and Utah all split with each other, you would have to prefer BYU's chances to go 5-0 against the rest of the league, if only one were to do so.  It's more than theoretically possible two, or even all three, go 5-0 for a tie.  However, if those assumptions don't hold true, it goes Utah 2nd, BYU 3rd, and Air Force 4th.  Utah is the most likely to unseat TCU as MWC champ, but they'll have to survive a Pac 10-like last 5 games, and I don't believe they will.  November should tell us a lot about Utah's ability to compete in the Pac 10 next season (5-0 or 4-1 speaks volumes, but 3-2 or 2-3 is a middle of the road Pac 10 team, and anything worse than that: hello, Washington State).
K, I know nobody wants to read 3-way tie (though I truly believe 6-2 is likely for all of them), so I'll very begrudgingly say Utah 2nd (because they are the most likely to go 7-1), BYU 3rd (because they are the least likely to lose to any of the bottom 5), and Air Force 4th (because they haven't finished above fourth since 2007, when they finished 2nd ahead of both Utah and TCU).  The winner of the BYU-Utah finishes 2nd...there's my not-so-bold prediction.  Maybe this was more of a prediction for the "Wednesday Waffle" than in Thursday Thoughts...
San Diego State finishes 5th, because they will win at Wyoming on October 30th, barring a blizzard.
Wyoming finishes 6th.
CSU-UNLV winner finishes 7th.  I'll go with CSU at home, a week after UNLV travels to West Virginia.
UNLV finishes 8th.  Guess it wasn't just Mike Sanford after all...
I would maybe have picked New Mexico to finish higher, but 72-0 will probably be the biggest beatdown of the season of ANY I-A school.

K, now to predictions for this weekend.
Utah beats UNLV 27-0...k, not really.  I'll go 31-13.  Utah sets the all-time MWC record for consecutive home wins, at 19 in a row, with the last loss to Air Force in early 2007.  Still unknown if Jordan Wynn will go, but it shouldn't matter and Utah shouldn't even risk it.  He is the (yet unproven) future of their program.
Texas hooks the Pokies, 34-20.  I would anticipate an inspired effort from the Wyoming Cowboys, in the wake of their tragic loss this past weekend, particularly by the defense.  Texas had some offensive woes last week and if Wyoming could capitalize they could push this one to the wire.  Or Texas could come out gangbusters after a vanilla performance this past week.  Wyoming played Texas tough last year, and even though this is one is on the road, I would expect nothing less than a good showing: points on the board and keeping Texas from scoring 72 points...wait, wrong team...Wyoming shouldn't give up 42.
TCU frosts Tennessee Tech, 45-3.  I don't anticipate a big letdown, particularly by the offense.  Andy Dalton has too much pride to follow a 2-interception performance with anything less than 3 passing TDs.  RB Matthew Tucker also wants to get in on the action after no TDs and less than 4 yards/carry against the Beavers.
San Diego State gets a road win against New Mexico State, 31-17.  It's New Mexico State's first game, and SDSU's first real game of the season.  However, their glorified scrimmage against Nicholls State allows them a chance to iron out some wrinkles in the tapestry of their performance.  I don't know where that came from either...
I'm sure New Mexico will score this game, but they'll come up a bit short, 63-3.  OK, so it won't be that bad: 45-10.  Unless Locksley really is a great coach, then they'll pull out the W...ri-ight...
Nevada gets its two-game MWC preview under way with a victory over CSU, 38-13.  Last year, the Rams shut Colin Kaepernick down.  Not so much this year.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see Nevada in the 40's.  CSU could eke their way into the 20's later in the game as well, but they'll lose by 20+, either way.

BYU-Air Force preview to come next.