Where The Two Teams Are
Two teams, both sitting at 2-5, both having played ridiculously difficult schedules, and both with chances at bowl games (thanks to easier schedules the rest of the way). Realistically, neither team has looked good, but a lot of that is that both teams have mostly just helped great teams pad their stats. One team will emerge victorious and with a chance at bowl eligibility. One will leave demoralized and be all but eliminated from bowl contention. Really, both teams have not had the success they wanted coming into the season. Whichever team is less deficient in more areas will win this game. BYU fans know this year what it's like to cheer for Wyoming most every year!
BYU O vs. Wyoming D
BYU has had some success running the ball. Wyoming is dead last in the country at run defense. BYU has not been able to get the passing game going much. Wyoming has actually not been pathetically bad at stopping the pass. BYU is scoring under 15 points per game. Wyoming is giving up nearly 31 points. Two under-performing (or performing at their potential and just very, very bad) units face off. Typically in a bad offense vs. bad defense matchup, I would take bad defense. But being 120th in the country in rushing defense against one of the biggest offensive lines is the country is not promising. If BYU cannot score 20 points at home against this team, write the rest of the season off. I believe they will, however.
BYU D vs. Wyoming O
Wyoming has made no strides on offense, even in their easier games against FCS Southern Utah or Toledo. BYU is improving on defense since Jaime Hill's firing. Wyoming ranks in the 100's in Rushing, Passing, Total, and Scoring Offense. They are 120th in total offense and 119th in both rushing and scoring. BYU's defense, after spending much of the year at the bottom in those categories, has improved. They are now 107th in rushing, 41st in passing, 91st in total, and 78th in scoring defense. Their pass defense is getting worse, but the rest are getting better (part of that is Bronco's more aggressive playcalling and risk-taking with the defense). If they can keep Wyoming under 300 passing yards, there should not be much problem containing this offense. 3rd down conversions will be crucial: Wyoming's offense (116th) is as bad as BYU's defense (104th) in 3rd down situations. Red zone scoring is a similar story: BYU's D is 110th, Wyoming's O is 119th. There is a lot of weakness on weakness here. The storyline here is easy: stop big plays in the passing game, stop Wyoming.
Prediction
I have continuously overestimated BYU's offense this season. It just is not very good. Part of it is personnel, though I think, and have stated for a few weeks now, that most of it is coaching. However, I think they should be able to dominate this game at home. They should be able to move the chains. They should be able to control the clock. They should be able to run the ball. They should be able to punch the ball into the end zone. The improving defense should be able to contain Wyoming's offense for the most part. I would expect one or two big plays, but, by and large, the Cowboys should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently. Realistically, I believe this game goes one of two ways: BYU plays well and wins handily or else BYU plays as they have been playing and lose by 4-10 points. I will go with the home crowd, right before a bye, getting ready for a late-season run. BYU wins, 24-10. I believe that BYU should score more than 24, but I've been giving them too much credit all season, so we'll stick with the mid-20's, even against this abysmal Wyoming defense.
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