Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Eight

MLB Playoffs

Giants-Rangers, baby!  Hopefully.  It isn't the foregone conclusion everyone is saying it is: Cliff Lee could lose.  The Giants still have to face three really good pitchers in games 5, 6, and 7.  But that is a World Series I would watch and be excited about.  Everyone says it will be bad for ratings, so I say to everybody reading this: watch it!  You will not regret it.  It will remind you of the elegant simplicity of the game that we all grew up loving and playing.  Pitching.  Defense.  No steroids.  Guts.  Gambles.  Hustle.  No $100 Million contracts.  Determination.  Fight.  Heart.  Love of the game.  The beauty of the sport, revealed to us again.  Just like the first time you saw Field of Dreams.  That is what a San Francisco Giants/Texas Rangers World Series will do for us.

Good Football Weekend Ahead

OU at Mizzou, LSU at Auburn, Air Force at TCU, Michigan State at Northwestern, Alabama at Tennessee, Wisconsin at Iowa, Nebraska at Oklahoma State, Washington at Arizona, Kansas State at Baylor, Ole Miss at Arkansas, Notre Dame vs. Navy, Georgia Tech at Clemson, Houston at SMU, North Carolina at Miami.  A lot of good matchups.  A lot of potential upsets.  I expect a lot of fun football this weekend.  It's a good weekend to be a college football fan!

Chambers Out (For Good)

I am sure BYU fans have heard by now, O'Neill Chambers has been suspended for the rest of the season and will transfer after the semester is over.  I echo Bronco's sentiments: it's a shame the kid could not put it together on and off the field.  He was a fun guy, and if I were ever interviewing, he would have been my go-to guy for brash, unapologetic quotes that were rarely, if ever, backed up on the field.  I thought BYU could have utilized him better across the middle of the field, but alas, they tried to use him in a way that did not keep him, or Cougar Nation, satisfied.
On a WR note, Ross Apo has officially been ruled out for the season and will appeal for a medical redshirt.

Farewell Tour

I think it is safe to say, BYU's farewell tour through the MWC is not going as most fans would have wanted.  The only other time Bronco Mendenhall started 1-2 in conference was his first year.  I do believe that his two worst years at BYU will bracket his MWC career.  I said it initially when I heard the independence news: next year BYU could have left the conference with a bang.  This year was more of a thud.  Bronco will finish with a 4-1 record against Air Force and San Diego State.  He is 4-0 against BYU's next 4 opponents.  He'll need to go 5-0 against all four of them to get that all-important bowl bid.  Next year's BYU team would benefit greatly from a bowl game by this year's BYU team.

By my count, BYU has given at least 28 players on offense significant snaps.  They will lose 4 players for sure: Luke Ashworth, O'Neill Chambers (transfer), Nick Alletto, and Jason Speredon.  All of those four are contributors, but not huge keys in this offense (are there any?).  They may lose 1-3 more for missions.  Matt Reynolds could leave early for the NFL, but I doubt he will, given the team's sluggish offensive performance, and the impact that has on his draft stock.  At the least, barring injuries, BYU will return 20 offensive players who made contributions to this team.
Kicker Mitch Payne graduates.  Big-legged kicker Justin Sorensen returns from his mission.  Riley Stephenson will be a junior next year, which might explain some of his inconsistencies to this point at P: he is only a sophomore.
By my count, 26 defensive players have played significant snaps to this point in the season as well.  Of those 26, they will lose 6 to graduation (5 starters).  I think there are only 2 that feasibly could serve missions.  Nobody is leaving early for the NFL (did anybody else laugh a little as they read that?).  Of the 5 starters that are graduating, 3 are from the secondary, all of which have missed time this season due to injuries, giving their replacements experience.  Shane Hunter and Vic So'oto are the other two.  So'oto will be sorely missed at the DE spot.  The defense has played 5 guys at the 2 MLB spots, so losing one, Hunter, will not kill them.  Defensively, BYU will return about 20 contributors from this year's team as well.
Next year's team will be better.  They will still have depth.  They could use an extra month of practice and an extra game.  The year after that (2012) might be Bronco's best yet.  Not to belittle the greatness of the 2006 team, probably one of BYU's best 4 teams ever, but I believe the 2012 Cougars have the potential to be that good.  They already have 10 games scheduled for that season: Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, at New Mexico State, and at San Jose State.  There are some tough games in there, but some easy ones too.

Hoops Look-Ahead

BYU looks to have a pretty good basketball team this season.  They have an experienced backcourt, a lot of bodies in the frontcourt, and a lot of promising newcomers.  Most publications rate them as a top 30 team with good prospects for a run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.  They have a preseason All-American in Jimmer Fredette.  They have 5 significant players back from last year's team and 3 other reserves that played in at least 20 games last season.  They have two guys back from missions that played before their missions.  They have one of the top incoming freshmen in the country.  They have one of the top JC players in the country joining their ranks.
If I had to put my money on a starting five, I'd go: Hartsock at 5, Collinsworth at 4, Abouo at 3, and Emery and Fredette 1/2.  That leaves some very capable backups to come in: Davies, Rogers, younger Collinsworth, Magnusson, and perhaps Martineau.
If James Anderson improved as much between 2009 and 2010 as he did from 2008 to 2009, he might be a serviceable backup big man in the MWC.
The biggest worry I see is Jimmer's backup: Martineau is just off a mission and Collinsworth is a true freshman.  He cannot log 38 minutes a game if BYU wants to make a push late in the season.  One of those two will have to step up and show they can play point guard.
Davies is a good player and backup center, but I don't see him as a starting big man at this point.  He had a lot of things to improve on from last season, including his size, his durability, and his defense.  His free throw shooting needed work too...

The key stretch is Thanksgiving to New Year's.  They play from Southern California to upstate New York, with a stint in Texas in between.  They play 10 games in 5 weeks: 1 home game, 6 neutral sites, 3 true road games, 5 different states, 9 different venues.  There is only one complete rummy in there AT Buffalo (in December of all things), two if you include Hawaii.  There are 3 or 4 BCS conference teams in there (depending on their Thanksgiving tournament, where they either get St. Mary's or Texas Tech in their final game).  There could be as many as 5 NCAA Tournament teams in there (probably more likely to be 3 though).  If they can survive that stretch with an 8-2 record, or better, they would be in great shape heading into conference play.
The conference schedule sets up pretty nicely.  They play road games at UNLV and New Mexico in January.  They only have one challenging road game in February/March: at SDSU on February 26th on CBS.  Like regular CBS.  If they hold serve at home, they would likely head into the MWC Tournament having won at least 8 of their last 9, with, likely at worst, a 13-3 conference record, and a 26-5 overall record.
Ultimately, I think to advance to the second weekend, they need at least a 6-seed, which I believe will take at least 28 wins by the end of the MWC Tournament.  26-27 wins lands them in the 7-10 seed range, where they will be playing a top 10 team in game two, and won't survive the first weekend.  Again.  I'm looking at 28 wins and either a conference title or a conference tournament championship for BYU to realistically push through to Danny Ainge territory.