Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Eight

The Curse of Number 1
Two weeks in a row, the number 1 team in the country has hit the road against quality opponents and lost by two TDs.  First was Alabama at South Carolina.  Next was Ohio State at Wisconsin.  Depending on what you view as number 1, this week, BCS #1 Oklahoma heads to Missouri.  AP, Coaches, and Harris Poll #1 Oregon plays at USC next weekend.  Potential future #1 teams and their upcoming road games: Auburn only plays 4 road games on the year.  So far they played two of them, with both results being 3-point wins.  Bama still to come in their last regular season game in the Iron Bowl.  TCU plays at Utah, on November 6th.  Boise State plays at Nevada, on Friday, November 26th.

Driving the Ball Update
This has become a weekly feature to highlight BYU's success (or lack thereof) at finishing drives this season.  BYU crossed the 50 twice against TCU, scoring only 3 points.  The problem this week was not the inability to finish drives, but the inability to start drives.  Wyoming crossed the 50 three times against TCU.  CSU did it twice.  And Tennessee Tech scored 7 points.  It is not as hard as BYU (and Robert Anae) is making it look.

Strength of Schedule Update
BYU's schedule strength is back in the top 10 this week after playing TCU, according to Jeff Sagarin.  They check in this week at #4.  Utah and West Virginia are the only top 25 teams with a triple-digit strength of schedule.  Utah will play 4 more teams this season better than any team left on the West Virginia schedule, so theirs will improve.  West Virginia: not so much.  They will not play a single team in the top 40 the rest of the season: they will only have played one team in the top 30 (LSU) by the time the season is over.  And this is the likely Big (L)East champion...

We're Hurting Tew
Jared Tew was inserted into the Air Force offense late in the 2008 season.  They are 13-5 when Jared Tew gets at least 10 carries.  They are 1-4 when he doesn't.  Without him, they have no chance to win the MWC.  They lost the SDSU game without him, which would have played out differently if he did not get hurt.  They would have lost to TCU with him anyway.  They had a chance at home against Utah with him on the field.  As it stands now, they will probably have to fight with SDSU and BYU for 3rd place.  Yes, BYU has a legitimate chance for 3rd place still...they could easily finish 5-3 in conference.  Air Force and SDSU haven't played TCU or Utah and each already has a loss.

The BCS Mess
As I was driving in to work today, it occurred to me how jacked up the BCS is.  I mean, I have always known it was jacked up, but it really hit me today. As I was thinking about, and listening to, various NFL playoff scenarios, I thought: well, if two teams tie, there is a tiebreaker in place to determine which one makes the playoffs, and which one does not. In college football, there could very easily be only two undefeated teams and have neither team make the National Championship game. I would bet, if that were the case, one of them would make the NC game, but certainly not both. Even if Boise State and TCU are 1 and 2 in the polls (which is doubtful in and of itself), whoever is 3 or 4 in the polls will likely have better computer numbers than one or both of those teams. Boise State is currently ahead of 3 undefeated teams, but behind 6 of them. TCU is behind 4 undefeated teams, ahead of 5. No 1-loss teams are currently ahead of either in the BCS standings, computer rankings, or human polls.

Current one-loss teams that could pass TCU/Boise State if they go undefeated the rest of the way:
Stanford (computers: 15% behind Boise State, 17% behind TCU) still plays Washington State, at Washington, Arizona, at Arizona State, at California, and Oregon State. Would probably pass in computers, though probably not in polls.
Alabama (computers: 26% behind Boise State, 28% behind TCU) still plays at Tennessee, at LSU, Mississippi State, FCS team, and Auburn, plus an SEC championship game against what would probably be a top 25 team at the time (South Carolina or Florida). Would probably pass in computers and polls.
Florida State (computers: 31% behind Boise State, 33% behind TCU) still plays at NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, at Maryland, and Florida, plus an ACC championship game against Virginia Tech, Miami, or Georgia Tech, most likely. Too much ground to make up in the computers and polls with not enough high-quality opponents.
Ohio State (computers: 32% behind Boise State, 34% behind TCU) still plays Purdue, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Iowa, and Michigan. I do not believe this schedule has the gusto to pass either team in the polls or the computer rankings.
Arizona (computers: 34% behind Boise State, 36% behind TCU) still plays Washington, at UCLA, at Stanford, USC, at Oregon, and Arizona State. Would pass at least one of them in polls and computers, but, because it is that good of a schedule, they will not navigate it undefeated.
Wisconsin (computers: 35% behind Boise State, 37% behind TCU) still plays at Iowa, at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, and Northwestern. Same with Ohio State: the Big Ten is so bloated from their easy non-conference schedules that they needed an undefeated team to finish in the top 2.
Iowa (computers: 40% behind Boise State, 42% behind TCU) still plays Wisconsin, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Northwestern, Ohio State, and at Minnesota. The schedule could certainly help Iowa make a push past one team, but probably not both. A Big Ten championship game would help.
Nebraska's computer rankings are abysmal, and with no big games left on the schedule until the Big 12 Title game, they are out of the National Championship discussion. Texas, Kansas State, and Mississippi State (the next three in the computer rankings) do not even control their own destinies.  They are out as well.

Of course, the other question is: would any of the current undefeated teams survive a loss and stay ahead of Boise State or TCU? Certainly, if any BCS conference team goes undefeated, they will be ahead of at least one of these two teams, if not both, in the polls, computers, BCS standings, etc.  A 1-loss SEC team certainly will have more gusto in the computers, enough to withstand a spot or two in the human polls.