Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Seven

Attacking TCU: Two Philosophies
There are two basic thoughts on how to beat a defense like TCU's, that is based on speed and confusion, and is run from a unique set (4-2-5, 4 DL, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs).  One, spread them out and force them to cover the whole field.  Attack mostly on the perimeter with outside routes.  Avoid the middle of the field.  Two, spread them out and attack the middle of the field.  I suppose there could be a hybrid of these two (called "balance"), but no one has tried that against TCU recently in my recollection.

BYU's Philosophy
The past two debacles for BYU against TCU has mostly focused on philosophy 1, getting outside.  Hitting outside receivers or inside WRs/TEs running outside routes and running stretch/outside running plays.  This didn't work either of the last two years with two NFL starters (Collie and Hall), two others who have made NFL rosters (Pitta and Unga), and one future NFL early round draft pick (Matt Reynolds).  So why would it work with this group?  In 2008, this strategy led to 2 INTs, a 52% completion percentage, 6 sacks, 2 fumbles, less than 1 yard/rush, and 23 total rushing yards.  In 2009, BYU focused a little bit less on the outside with better statistical results: 1 INT, 64%, 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 yards/rush, and 110 total rushing yards.

Victors Over TCU
So how do you get it done offensively against TCU?  Well, realistically, there is no way to get it done.  Over the past 2.5 seasons, only 3 teams have beat TCU (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State).  Only one (Oklahoma) did so with over 325 yards of offense and scored more than 20 points.  If someone wants to beat TCU, whatever offensive strategy they employ must be coupled with a dominant defensive performance.  Those three teams won their respective games by winning the turnover battle by at least 2.  Two of the three also won the time of possession battle.

BYU 2008/2009 vs. 2010
This year's WRs do not have the ability to catch the ball, even when they are open, something unknown in 2008 and 2009.  Jake Heaps has struggled throwing the ball outside, while Max Hall usually did not have many issues with that part of the game.  With better offensive lines (and a QB with better pocket presence), BYU has given up an average of 5.5 sacks over the past two games against TCU.  With better WRs/TEs, BYU has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging less than 6 yards/attempt and with only 5 plays over 20 yards.  With better RBs, BYU wasn't able to get the 4-5 yards/carry outside that they would need to move the chains against TCU's defense.  Clearly, a new strategy needs to be employed, since the personnel has deteriorated.

What Would Mo Do
My BYU gameplan for attacking TCU would emphasize formational advantage and playcalling.  Formations: 70% shotgun formation with 3 WRs/TEs outside, 2 RBs in the backfield, 20% shotgun formation with 4 WRs/TEs and 1 RB, 5% I-formation (no double-TE unless I was inside the 5-yard line), and 5% shotgun formation, empty backfield (5 WRs/TEs).  Playcalling: 75% of all plays would either be a running play between the tackles, or a play-action pass off of a run between the tackles.  I would call zero running plays outside, zero option reads with Marshall (TCU will run those plays down for losses and BYU would risk injuring Marshall for games when his skills could actually be effective), and no gadget plays that did not involve the ball back in Heaps' hands for a throw.  The other 25% could be 3-step drop passes, maybe a couple of 5-step drops.  And BYU has to take some shots down the field on those play-action passes and 5-step drops: it is impossible to beat TCU with the horizontal passing game.  BYU must get SOME vertical action, especially if the TCU defense is crowding the box.  They have too much speed.  BYU has too little.

Essentially, I would play keep-away with my downhill running attack.  BYU will not outspeed or trick their way to victory in this game.  They have to rely on old-fashioned power football, similar to how they played against SDSU, but without the "Marshall Package."  Size in the middle is TCU's biggest defensive weakness and BYU's biggest offensive strength.  TCU comes at opponents from the edge, confusing them by bringing Safeties, Linebackers, and Corners: it is difficult to determine who is coming, and from where, and how to pass block them.  The best way to beat that is simply to not worry about it: run between the tackles with a lead FB to hit the first man to cross his face.  Safeties and Corners that roam inside the tackles are more easily blocked by interior linemen or fullbacks than they are outside, because the middle gives preference to those with size, not speed.  The outside is just the opposite.  Even when TCU loads the box, they usually only place 6 men between the tackles and 2 men outside (one on each side).  The offense can counter with 6 blockers between the tackles and the back-side of the defense would have to respect the play-action.

The one thing I know is that BYU's previous plan of attack against TCU was worthless, as evidenced by 14 points in two games.  BYU's only chance this game is to score more points.  And their only chance of doing that is a complete scrapping of everything BYU has done against TCU the past two years, including going for it on 4th down when BYU is in field goal range.  Take the points, when they are there.  I do not envy Robert Anae's task this week, but if it does not involve a lot of power running, whatever he comes up with will fail.