Wednesday Waffle, 2010, Week Nine

The question a lot of people are asking, outside of some die-hard Utah fans who answer only with their hearts, is: can Utah compete in the Pac 12 immediately, in 2011?  The short answer is: it depends.  The long answer: keep reading!

The Schedule:
What we know
They will play UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado.  They will play 4 of the 6 North schools.  The North schools are: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California-Berkeley, and Stanford.  The non-conference slate SHOULD include: Montana State, at BYU, and at Pittsburgh.  Utah has cancelled non-conference games with Iowa State (home) and Boise State (road).
What we don't know
How many of their 9 conference games will be home vs. road?  It will be split 5/4 in some fashion.  Which of the 4 North schools will they play and where will they play them?  At first glance, Washington State is the only team they should beat, regardless of location, the rest are all tough teams and have great home-field crowds.  Where will their bye week fall?  If it comes too early or too late, there might be issues: if it is too early, they may finish the season with 6 difficult opponents in a row without a break, if it is too late, they may already be eliminated from contention before they have a chance to catch their breath.  Will the most difficult opponents be stacked up or spread out?  Playing Washington State, Arizona State, and Colorado in consecutive weeks would be nice, but it'd be better to have them spread between the more powerful teams in the conference to allow somewhat of a "break" for the Utes.

The Roster:
What we know
RBs Matt Asiata and Eric Wide are graduating.  So are stud WR Jereme Brooks, dangerous KR/PR Shaky Smithson, experienced backup QB Terrence Cain, and ridiculously accurate K Joe Phillips.  2 of the 5 starting OL will graduate as well.  QB Jordan Wynn, WR De'Vonte Christopher, RBs Sausin Shakerin and Tauni Vakapuna, and 3 starting OL will return.  Having a big, experienced line, a seasoned QB, and a playmaking WR will be huge, especially given the loss of the thousands of rushing yards from the backfield.
Starting DBs Lamar Chapman and Justin Taplin-Ross, LB Chad Manis, and DE Christian Cox are gone from the defense.  But it was a mostly young defense this year, and a lot of guys are playing significant minutes.  Assuming no defections to the NFL by eligible juniors and redshirt sophomores, LBs Chaz Walker, Matt Martinez, and Boo Anderson, DBs Brian Blechen and Brandon Burton, and DL Sealver Siliga, Dave Kruger, and Derrick Shelby will be back.  That is the start of a very solid defense.
What we don't know
Where will the power running game come from?  Vakapuna has shown some promise in gaining the tough yards, but that is mostly in garbage time, and 12 games in a Pac 12 schedule is a tough road to hoe, especially for a RB who is supposed to look for contact.  What will happen to the passing game if teams can lock down on De'Vonte Christopher?  Young WRs Luke Matthews and Griff McNabb and TE Kendrick Moeai have shown some promise, but not much to show that they can carry the load for a full season.  Will they have enough depth to survive a much more difficult schedule?  The Utes are already thin at WR and RB: one or two injuries at those positions could be devastating.  Will their defensive personnel adjust to playing bigger, faster, stronger offenses?  They take a lot of risks in the MWC and get away with it because of their superior athletic ability: they will not have superior athletic ability in the Pac 12.

The Pac 12:
What we know
USC still has sanctions levied against it.  Colorado, Arizona State, and Washington State are no good this year, with nothing to make anyone believe they will be any good next season.  Arizona and Oregon are very senior-heavy teams this year.  But Washington, UCLA, and Stanford will be bringing back a lot from this season's much-improved teams.  Cal and Oregon State are always tough.  Utah definitely ended up in the weaker division of the two, however.  Playing four of the six from the other division mitigates that advantage a little bit, unless Oregon and Stanford are the ones they do not play in 2011.
What we don't know
Will USC be able to be good next year, even with the heavy penalties against them?  They still have a lot of very good players.  Will UCLA improve as much next year as they did this year?  They are miles ahead this year from where they were last year, but they still have miles to go.  Who will be coaching at Arizona State and Colorado?  All assumptions are that those two schools will be going through coaching changes.

My Predictions
Pac 12
The conference will be much weaker at the top.  This year there are 3 great teams: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona.  At least two of those teams will probably just be good teams next season.  Certainly the South is a winnable division for anyone, except probably Colorado and Arizona State.  The winner of the North will be the better team in the Championship Game (and will get home field advantage for the Pac 12 Title Game), but they also probably had a more taxing road to get there.  USC's appeal is still undecided, but for now, they cannot play in the postseason in 2011, which would include the conference title game.
Utah
The Utes are taking a good defense and an experienced QB to the Pac 12.  Certainly, if there were a year for the Utes to join the Pac 12, this is probably as good a team as any to do it with.  It also helps that the Pac 12 South will be ripe for the picking.  All Utah needs to do is win the division or finish 2nd behind USC to get a shot at the Pac 12 Title Game.
I do not buy into the "Arizona-Arizona State have stunk since their jump to the Pac 10" argument as a reason why Utah cannot compete: this is a different college football world today.  It is impossible to compare the jump made by two teams over 30 years ago to one that a team makes today.  If the schedule lines up nicely, if Utah can find some quality WRs and RBs already in their system, and if they can stay healthy, there is no reason they could not win the Pac 12 South immediately.  If Utah can get into the Pac 12 Title game, then anything can happen.
Without seeing the schedule or knowing the full roster, I feel confident in saying that Utah will NOT play in the National Championship game next season, regardless of what either of those looks like.  Winning the Pac 12 South is a possibility, and, because of that, the Rose Bowl is a possibility.  I do not believe they will get there in 2011 (there were way too many if's in the preceding paragraph), but it certainly is possible.