MWC Football Outlook 2010

What the MWC Media/Coaches are probably going to say:

1. TCU
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. UNLV
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico

So let's look at the likelihood of teams ending up like that, followed by what I think actually happens:

TCU
Why they will win the conference: they are returning pretty much the entire offense from the most dynamic offensive MWC team from 2009.  Their defense loses a few key guys and one of their returning starters at LB is uncertain for the early part of the year.  But they were by far the best defense in 2009, and for the better part of the past decade they have always had a great defense.  If their offense is clicking too, they are nearly unstoppable.
Why they won't win the conference: the last time TCU came in as the defending MWC champ and super-hyped, potential BCS buster (2006), they busted.  BYU dominated them in Fort Worth on the Horned Frogs' way to a 6-6 record.  They seem to relish the underdog role: see what happened to them in Provo last year vs. what they did at the Fiesta Bowl.  There is some uncertainty on D, losing two key DBs and both starting LBs (Tank Carden will likely be unavailable the early part of the season), so things must gel quickly for their aggressive, hit you in the mouth, and ride you all the way down the field mentality on defense.  Also, they have to play at Utah, which has become a tougher and tougher place to play each year during the K-Whit era.  TCU also has the unfortunate disadvantage of playing 3 games at altitudes more than 3,000 feet higher than Fort Worth.

Utah
Why they will finish 2nd or higher: they always have a good D, same as TCU, so having to replace a few key guys shouldn't be a huge issue.  They sometimes struggle on offense.  They are returning a lot of firepower at RB with Asiata and Wide (and Shakerin, if you count him, but I don't anticipate he'll see much action, since he was only the "wild Ute" RB after Asiata got hurt) and with Wynn coming back at QB.  They also get TCU and BYU at home.
Why they will finish 3rd or lower: that D that has always been good has never seen the type of turnover the past two years have dealt it.  Two years ago, they lost 3 playmakers.  Last year, they lost the other 3.  A non-BCS school can't deal with the loss of 6 defensive playmakers in 2 years: not with recruiting classes perennially in the 40's and 50's.  They have a tough non-conference slate (Pitt, at Iowa State, at Notre Dame) which does a couple of things: exposes your weaknesses, increases your chances of injury, and puts a wear and tear on young men's bodies.  Their 3 toughest conference games are all in the final month of the season.  The game at Air Force just before hosting TCU could be a look-ahead game if the Utes and Frogs are both undefeated and in the top 10.  They follow that up at ND then at SDSU, before the rivalry game against BYU.  That's a very physical month for any team.

BYU
Longer preview to come later this week

Air Force
Why they'll finish in the top half of the conference: they are the ultimate model of consistency in the MWC (besides BYU).  They have finished in the top half of the conference each of the past three years.  Most of their toughest conference games are at home.  They are probably the team that TCU seems to struggle with the most (though in both MWC home games against Air Force, TCU has blown them out).  They bring back the core of a group that played surprisingly down the stretch last year, culminating in a blowout win over Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl.
Why they'll finish in the bottom half of the conference: they usually have had a tendency fade down the stretch, and their schedule the first month doesn't exactly inspire confidence that they can make up for that a hot start.  I wouldn't be all that surprised to see them start 1-3 on the season (Northwestern State, BYU, at Oklahoma, at Wyoming), 0-2 in MWC play, and that's before playing TCU and Utah.

Wyoming
Why they can break into the top half of the conference: finished the season on a good note for the first time in years.  They bring back a decent offensive unit.  This year, they made some changes on D that should make for an improvement on that side of the ball.  Typically, the D carries the O, but last year it was the opposite.  If they can get on the same page this year, watch out.  Plus, all they really have to do to bust in to the top half is beat Air Force out.  They get them early in the year, at home, and, with a win, could create the separation they need to bust into the top 4.  They also gave Utah a run for their money last year, and they'll get them at home this year.
Why they falter and drop back to the also-rans of the MWC: last year, the conference was really weak after the top 4, somebody had to move up.  This year, the bottom half will be improved, and Wyoming won't be able to or receive a bowl bid kind of by default.  The switch to the 4-3 could blow up in their face.  Austyn Carta-Samuels could have a sophomore slump and the O wouldn't probably recover from that.  Both of those are possibilities.

UNLV
Why this year is finally their year: they brought in a proven winner, with Bobby Hauck.  He will instill discipline and a team-first mentality.  They have some beef on the lines, coupled with some speed on the outside.  They have shown they can play with some of the bigger boys, they just haven't been able to pull of wins in those games.
Why it's the same story, different year, different coach: coach Hauck might not be able to handle some of the prima donna attitudes of his more talented players.  He never experienced that at Montana!  His emphasis on discipline may lead to division among the team between those who buy in and those who don't.  They have to travel to Utah in week two, a week after playing Big Ten physicality in Wisconsin.  They also have a difficult stretch of 4 games that could doom their season: at West Virginia, at CSU, TCU, at BYU.

SDSU
Why you can believe Coach Hoke has these boys headed in the right direction: they could start the season 3-1, which would be a huge confidence boost.  They nearly made a bowl game last year and this year's schedule looks a lot easier.  They had a much more consistent offense last year than they have had in recent memory.  They have always relied on the big play, but they were able to have a few solid, long drives from time to time.  If they can beef up a bit on the line, they might actually have a decent squad.  The running game needs a feature back, or at least one of the two main backs being a little more of a playmaker (Walter Kazee and Brandon Sullivan combined for only THREE carries over 20 yards: some of the better RBs in the MWC had multiple games where they had 3 carries over 20 yards!).
Why they will finish where they always finish, in a fight for last place: they are very young.  There is virtually no senior leadership.  None of the players on the team have experienced a .500 record in Division I football!  I know it's cliche, but they are probably a year away [from being able to win 8 games].  They have little to no home-field advantage (Utah State, Utah, Air Force, even UNLV...).  All of their road games are played at altitude (NMSU, UNM, BYU, Wyoming) and/or against very good opponents (Missouri, BYU, TCU).

CSU
Why they might return to their 2008 form in 2010: they have a couple of really solid RBs.  That's about all I got for them this next year.  It's going to be a rough one.
Why the 9-game collapse from last year carries over into this year, and beyond: 5 home games.  5 games at home.  2 of those are BYU and TCU.  The other 3 are losable games as well: Idaho, UNLV, and New Mexico.  They are breaking in a new QB, a mostly new OL, and have to replace 2 of the most productive WRs in their program's history.  They aren't even a year away.

New Mexico
Why they'll win more than one game this year: this is also a tough one, perhaps not quite as tough as CSU though!  They have 5 winnable games (at UNLV, UTEP, SDSU, at NMSU, at CSU), they should be able to pull out 2 of them, maybe.  The good news is they play all 5 in a row, so they could even get on a winning streak (it's been 3 years since they had one of those).  There isn't a big off-the-field controversy to distract players.  Yet.
Why they won't: at Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah, and that's just the first three games of the season.  The last 3 don't look much better: at Air Force, at BYU, TCU.  They are losing a 4-year starter at QB (granted he had a horrible senior year, but still).  They did get a big hog-molly for their defensive front, perhaps the biggest "get" for a non-BCS team on signing day, but one man won't improve one of the worst defenses from last year west of the Mississippi, which includes some pretty pathetic teams.

How I actually see it:
The past few years, the top 3 have segregated themselves from the pack.  They have been closely followed by Air Force, who has been closely followed by the 5th best team.  So the real questions would seem to be who is going to rise to be the 5th team and what order will the top 3 be in.  I disagree.  I think the top 4, yes, including Air Force, will dominate the bottom 5 so badly, that there may not be a 5th team that rises to the middle of the pack.  I think this year, Air Force can not only break into the top three, but maybe even slide into the 2nd spot.  They will need a win over either BYU or Utah, but they may not even need both to get to 2nd place.  They have 2 difficult 2-game stretches (BYU, then at Oklahoma; @TCU, then hosting Utah), but the rest of the schedule are winnable games.  The most likely teams, I think, to rise to 5th are UNLV and SDSU.  UNLV gets Utah early in the year which could be a curse or a blessing.  Curse: they will be healthy still on O.  Blessing: Utah has got to get some stuff figured out on D, and they might not have it taken care of after just one game.  SDSU could take some lumps early with a trip to BYU before hosting Air Force, and then take them again late, playing at TCU then hosting Utah in November.  But that stretch in between could give them 3 straight conference wins, including two on the road.  I would count Wyoming out merely based on confidence level: they have to play Air Force, @ TCU, Utah, and @ BYU their first 4 conference games.  They might get one of those, but it's tough to imagine them getting 2 or 3 and going into the easy half of the schedule with any confidence.  I believe the standings might look like this:

1. TCU
2. Air Force
3. Utah
4. BYU
5. UNLV
6. Wyoming
7. SDSU
8. CSU
9. New Mexico

So really, I think the MWC will undervalue Air Force and overvalue Wyoming.  I'm probably wrong.  It's still early: no way to tell how things shake out with injuries or star RBs withdrawing from school or anything of the sort.  But it's still fun to talk about.  If I were a betting man, I'd go all-in on the following: TCU winning the crown, Utah finishing in the top 3, and CSU and New Mexico finishing in the bottom 3.  Of course, my all-in at this point in life would be about $2, so it isn't that big of a risk anyway!