MWC Predictions, Week Six

Colorado State at Air Force: CSU is coming off two decent weeks.  They came from behind to beat Idaho and only lost by 27 to TCU, which is not bad considering how poorly CSU played in its first 3 losses.  But they still cannot score points and they cannot run the football.  If you get pass-happy on Air Force, they possess the ball for 40 minutes to your 20.  Initially I thought a 25-point spread was a bit much, but that actually sounds a little low for how this game COULD go.  Air Force has been struggling a bit offensively, so I'll go Air Force 34, CSU 6 and go with the Falcons to barely cover the spread.

UNLV at West Virginia: these are the kinds of games that UNLV played really well in under former coach Mike Sanford.  However, UNLV has only looked good against New Mexico thus far under current coach Bobby Hauck.  They forced some turnovers last week against Nevada, and the offense has been putting points up the past two weeks.  West Virginia has not played well this season, though they were competitive against LSU before their bye this past weekend.  That would put quite a damper on the Big East if a bottom-dwelling MWC team came in and laid a beatdown on the Big East's current frontrunner.  I do not see it happening, though I think it will be close.  West Virginia 34, UNLV 24.

Wyoming at TCU: this is one of those style point games for TCU.  Wyoming lost by 27 at Texas and by 45 to Boise State (at home).  TCU gets Wyoming at home.  The passing game has not really got going for TCU, despite having some electrifying receivers.  The run game, however, has been phenomenal for the Frogs.  They have 20 rushing TDs from 7 different players in 5 games.  Andy Dalton is completing 65% of his passes, despite throwing 4 picks.  If TCU can run the ball for 250 and get 60% or more from Dalton, with their defense, not many teams will beat them.  Certainly not the Wyoming Cowboys.  Wyoming's only chance is to win the turnover battle, but that is something they haven't done against lesser teams in prior games.  TCU gets some style points in a big win, TCU 48 (Patterson will leave his first unit in to get a score in the 4th), Wyoming 10.

Utah at Iowa State: I would not go full scale upset alert on this one, but if I had to pick a top 10 team to lose this weekend, this is one of the 3 that could (Bama at SC and Arizona hosting Oregon State).  Utah has yet to play a good team this season.  Pitt was the only athletic team they played to this point, and that was a month ago, and it took OT at home after a complete offensive meltdown by Utah in the second half (since that game Pitt beat an FCS team, got trounced by Miami at home, and limped to a 3-point halftime lead over a Sun Belt team before getting it together in the second half).  Iowa State is the first team since then that can line up and play physical with Utah.  They have some good players on the outside and they are tough on the inside.  I have watched Austen Arnaud (Iowa State QB) 3 or 4 times this season and last: when he is on, the Cyclones can drop 52 on a Tommy Tuberville-coached defense.  Iowa State's defense has forced 8 turnovers the past 2 games.  Utah could be a bit rusty on offense after the bye week.  If Iowa State can jump out early they have a chance: Utah is not going to be a come-from-behind sort of team, certainly not on the road.  Jordan Wynn is still a young QB, and they rely too much on the big play to expect a comeback win on the road.  If the Cyclones do not get up by 14 points in the first half, with the way Utah just keeps coming at you, Iowa State cannot handle that for 4 quarters.  I am not willing to pick the upset, but I think Utah would be wise to score at least 27 points.  Utah 31, Iowa State 27.

New Mexico at New Mexico State: the pillow fight of the week in FBS.  These really are two of the 5 worst FBS teams.  Neither can score.  Neither can stop anyone else from scoring on them.  I will go with New Mexico State to win at home, 24-17.