BYU-TCU Preview 2010

The final matchup between these two, more than likely ever, has the makings of a blowout.  Although the last two years had the makings of good games and were blowouts.  That can either be a really good sign or a really bad sign: 1) the games never play out like experts think or 2) even when BYU is good TCU is much, much better.  Regardless of the "signs," here's an analysis on what to expect.

BYU O vs. TCU D
BYU has struggled to move the ball consistently from end to end.  They have not been able to throw the ball like most BYU teams of the past.  The running game has the most consistent part of the offense, but even that is not good (71st in the nation in yards/game).  It showed signs of improvement last week against an undersized SDSU defense.  Other encouraging notes about BYU's offense: dropped passes decreased dramatically from the first five games to SDSU.  Heaps had his highest completion percentage and highest QB rating of the season, in spite of only throwing for 126 yards on 22 attempts.  The offense has been moving in the right direction the past two games, but they are running up against a buzz-saw defense in the Horned Frogs.  TCU is giving up 230 yards and 10.3 points/game.  BYU is averaging 329 yards and 16.7 points/game.  On the road, BYU is doing even worse.  At home, TCU is doing even better.  SMU is the only team to get 300 yards of offense against TCU.  3 opponents have not even scored in double-digits and a fourth one (Baylor) got exactly 10 points.

BYU will not get very good field position in the game.  It is hard to imagine that they will be able to consistently drive the length of the field and get TDs.  It is even hard to imagine marching down the field period.  They just do not have the horses to recover from even a single mistake (penalty, sack, dropped pass, missed block on a running play) against this defense.  I would be shocked to see this unit put 3 total scores on the board (13 points) unless the defense and special teams really help them out.

BYU D vs. TCU O
TCU moves the ball and scores points.  TCU is averaging 279 yards/game on the ground.  BYU gives up 225, although they showed improvement last week against SDSU.  That was at home, and that was SDSU.  It all starts with stopping TCU's rushing attack.  If they can do that, they have a chance.  However, TCU's worst output of the season was 190 yards rushing, and they have played several defenses better than BYU's.

If they stop TCU's rushing attack (hold it to less than 150 yards), they still have to deal with the passing game, which hasn't been great, but is still throwing for 200+ yards/game.  Oh, and it has been known to make BYU look silly in recent years.  Last season, in only 25 pass attempts, TCU had 285 passing yards, including two plays over 40 yards.  The year before they only had 170 yards, in 19 attempts, but had 2 TDs.  The key thing there is: yards in bunches.  Anytime a team averages over 10 yards/ATTEMPT, they are doing something right.  They have speed, size, trickery, and an experienced QB to lead this year's passing attack.

BYU showed signs of life last week on defense, but it still showed a lot of weaknesses.  It would take an out-of-nowhere dominating performance to give BYU a chance to win.  TCU can make mistakes, as long as they are not turnovers, and recover.  That is the difference between the two teams.  2nd and 15 or 3rd and 12 are doable for this TCU team against this BYU team.  I do not see any statistical chance that BYU can hold this TCU offense to less than 24 points.

Prediction
Well, it seems pretty obvious where I am going with this prediction.  TCU has too much speed, ability, experience, talent, passion, motivation, etc. for a still growing and learning BYU team to consistently hold them down and consistently score on them.  It would take both to win the game.  It would be a huge miracle if Bronco Mendenhall could rally his troops in time to win this game.  I think BYU manages to score once or twice on TCU miscues and ends their two-game shutout streak, but TCU still takes the game handily: TCU 38, BYU 10.  I believe this to be an overly optimistic prediction.  It certainly has the potential to be much, much uglier.  Patterson says he does not "run up the score" on anybody, but his actions speak otherwise: his starters play at least 3.5 quarters almost every game.