So, over the summer, I took an analytical approach to preseason rankings and set up a system to rate all of the teams, one that most closely resembled my "gut" feeling. A link to the results can be found at: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/preseason-rankings.html if you missed it.
Today, I just wanted to look at how BYU's opponents look in aggregate, with a more specific look to follow (though a more in-depth, albeit pre-camp look at UVa is available at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents.html and Texas at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents_24.html).
BYU was #40, with an overall rating of .563 (Alabama is an NCAA high of .727).
Virginia weighs in at #84, with a rating of .469 (basically meaning they are 10 "points" worse than BYU). My model gives them the 29th most difficult schedule, with 6 games against teams rated 40th or higher. Their only conference wins are against Maryland and Duke. Their non-conference wins are VMI and Ball State.
Texas comes in as the #4-ranked team with a rating of .717. Texas always has superior athletes (so always look good on paper) but what sets them apart this season is their experience. BYU fans probably remember some of the cast from the team that eked out a victory in Austin against Jake Heaps and the Cougars. Pretty much all of those players are still there, playing as seniors this year. The model tips towards Texas winning all of its games, though there are some one-score, one-play type of games that could go either way. The toughest game for Texas, according to the model, is at TCU (b/c OU is neutral site and Ole Miss is at home). Though BYU fans hope that BYU is the toughest game for them! The model definitely has Texas winning the Big XII.
Utah is #48 and has a .547 rating. Utah's rating is almost entirely held up by their performances in the MWC, since I used historical win totals for the last 5 years as one of the data points. The schedule is brutal, including 9 teams rated higher than them, and so the model has them falling jut short of a bowl game again. However, of note, the model has Utah playing 7 games decided by one score or less (i.e. one play) with a 2-5 record in those games. Anything can happen, so it is entirely within the realm of possibilities to see Utah bowling, if they get a few lucky breaks. As a BYU fan, I think they've had enough lucky breaks (2008 had enough of them to last a lifetime) so maybe 2-5 is about right in those games...
Middle Tennessee is better than a lot of BYU fans expect, though they (rightfully) expect BYU to win that game handily. They are #59, with a .525 rating. The model actually calls for a 9-3 record for MT, with the losses coming at North Carolina and at BYU, with a 3-point home loss (i.e. a potential win) to ECU. I personally expect more like 8-4, but the model didn't perfectly reflect my thoughts on this one. I expect a decent game between the two blue squads on a Friday night in September.
The model, in spite of Utah State's long history of anemic performance, has the 2013 Aggies rated higher than BYU at #32 with a .573 rating. The model, based on Utah State's home schedule in the MWC has them ousting Boise State (based on Aggies hosting Boise State) on their way to playing in the MWC Championship Game against Fresno State. Now, I am not sure that the model appropriately manages expectations for a first-time head coach or a conference shift very well, so perhaps it is a little optimistic for the Aggies.
Georgia Tech is also rated higher than BYU at #34 and a .569 rating. Georgia Tech, according to the model, will find themselves in a lot of close contests, including the October jaunt to Provo. After an FCS game to open the year, Georgia Tech should have 3 close games. The outcomes there may determine the collective psyche of the Bumble Bee team that shows up at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Houston is #63 at .520. Houston plays at Rice, which is its most difficult game prior to BYU. With Houston hosting the game against BYU, the model has it as a statistically even matchup, with a slight advantage to the visiting BYU Cougars.
Boise State is #24 and a .595 rating. BYU hosts the game, which makes it a statistical toss-up, slight edge to BYU. On a neutral site, Boise State would win, and a game at Boise would go towards the Broncos easier than last year's game. However, BYU gets to host and it should make for an exciting event. My model, in spite of having Boise at #24, has them playing their 5 toughest games on the road with a 1-4 record. I don't buy that, necessarily, but it doesn't bode well for anyone to play their 5 toughest games on the road (BYU fans can relate to that in 2012!).
Wisconsin is #19 with a .613 rating. They host BYU and that should play into their hands. My model has a road loss at Ohio State as the only thing keeping them out of the Big Ten Championship game. It will be interesting to see if Gary can pull off the same magic in Madison as he did in Logan.
BYU then hosts Idaho State, an FCS school that was not put into the model, but it wouldn't have been pretty for them if I had.
Notre Dame is #9 with a .650 rating. Notre Dame has a difficult, but not overly brutal schedule. They play 7 teams in my model's top 50, but one of those is overrated Michigan (I have the Wolverines at #44, though both preseason polls have them at #17: I like my placement for them better and think they will be much closer to .500 than to a Big Ten Title). Only two of those 7 are road games. The schedule lined up nicely for the Irish this season as they appear to be BCS Bowl bound, per the model (I personally saw them at 9-3 or 10-2, but after attending their practice last week, I was thoroughly impressed with the WRs, one of the 2 positions I was worried about for them, so maybe 10-2 is more likely than I initially thought...).
Nevada is #96 with a .442 rating. The model doesn't like how the year starts for Nevada, with road games at UCLA and Florida State (losses). They also play on the road against 4 of the best teams in the MWC. It doesn't look like a banner year for the Wolfpack this year.
So there you have it: a summary of what a statistical model has to say about BYU's opponents this season. There is a distinct possibility of 10 wins or 6 wins for BYU. My model takes the middle road and says 8-4. 10 days from now, we'll have a much better idea of where things are looking.
No comments:
Post a Comment