It's Game Week: Mo Predicts Stuff

So, let's sum up what I think happens in 2013:

SEC West
Manziel doesn't win the Heisman.  A&M doesn't win 10 games.  LSU doesn't either.  Bama's biggest test in the SEC West will be Ole Miss, which plays most of its toughest SEC games at home (A&M and LSU).  Everybody points to Bama at A&M as the game that decides the SEC West, but I say it's Ole Miss at Alabama.  Bama will beat Texas A&M on Kyle Field by 2 TDs or more.  Ole Miss might lose 2 SEC games, but that's my cap for them.

SEC East
This is NOT the year that South Carolina finally gets there.  This is the year that the Georgia Bulldogs actually have a chance to dethrone Alabama in the SEC Title game.

SEC Title
I'll go out on a limb and pick Georgia to pull off a mild upset.  If you are going to beat Saban in a Title Game, it better be the SEC Title game where he is "only" 4-2.  In my mind, this is the only way Bama does NOT 3-peat.  No team has EVER won 3 national titles in a row, so I'll go with history.

Pac 12 North
Stanford figured out how to beat an amazing Oregon offense last season.  I see no reason to believe, at home this season, they won't do it again.  For me, Stanford is the easy pick to win it, the question in my mind is: can they go undefeated/play in the national championship game.  The game at Oregon State is, in my mind, going to be their biggest challenge of the season.  Outside of Oregon State, the only Pac 12 teams on their schedule that could challenge them play at Stanford: Arizona State, Washington, Oregon.

Pac 12 South
I think, unfortunately, it is Arizona State's year.  I guess it's not that unfortunate b/c it will bring an end to the failed Kiffin experiment at USC (after the failed Kiffin experiments everywhere else), but still, as classy as a guy as Todd Graham is off-the-field, he's totally classless on it  He's a small-school (or bush-league) coach in a big-school league.  It'll catch up to him eventually, but not this season.

Pac 12 Title
Stanford, hosting ASU for the 2nd time in 2013, wins again.

MWC West
Fresno State has 2 tricky intra-division games on the road at San Diego State and at San Jose State.  If they win one, they win the West.  If they win both, they could put themselves in position to get to a BCS game if they can beat the East's champion.  They host Boise State on a Friday night in September.  I think Fresno has what it takes to go 11-1.

MWC East
The Utah State Aggies may struggle joining a new league with a new coach.  But the MWC gave them a great schedule as they host both Boise State and Colorado State, which should be the two toughest intra-division games.  They do, however, have a difficult non-conference schedule to navigate and still have to play at San Jose State in cross-division action.  I think the home win over Boise State gives them just enough juice to eke out a division title and chance to lose at Fresno State in the inaugural MWC Title game.

MWC Title
Well, already spilled the beans: Fresno over Utah State, a game that might get Fresno State into the BCS if they can manage a 12-1 record.  With that said, I think Fresno State is probably the 3rd best team in the MWC (Boise #1, Utah State #2)...

MAC East
Bowling Green edges Ohio after beating them head-to-head.

MAC West
Northern Illinois wins the division by 2 games.

MAC Title
I'll go with an upset here (since it's probably an upset to even have them IN this game) and take Bowling Green.  The MAC champ is likely 12-1, probably ranked in the top 20, but has no shot at a BCS game this season.  NIU's BCS debacle last year, combined with perhaps some of the easiest schedules in the country (that includes all 3 probable champs Ohio, BG, and NIU) precludes that possibility, unless that team is 13-0 and earns an AUTOMATIC bid b/c MWC champ is only 11-2.

CUSA East
East Carolina beats Middle Tennessee at home and holds off a late-season surge (6 straight wins) from them to win the division.

CUSA West
Rice or Tulsa here is a pretty easy "last two standing" pick.  I won't disagree with my model, which predicts a narrow Rice win at Tulsa in week 6.

CUSA Title
It wouldn't be out of the question to see the winner of this game ranked in the top 25, pushing for a BCS bid.  I don't think they quite get there, but I'll go with East Carolina, hosting the Title Game (probably), eking out a win.

Big Ten Legends
Two-horse between Nebraska and Michigan State.  I sure would love to see Sparty take it home, especially beating Nebraska in Lincoln in November, so I'll go ahead and predict that.  Michigan State takes it.  I would like to take this opportunity to point out that NOBODY is picking this, everyone loves Michigan (who I maintain is vastly overrated this year, talk to me about the Wolverines NEXT season) or Nebraska.

Big Ten Leaders
Only an idiot would pick someone besides Ohio State here.  Wisconsin has a shot, but I think the road game in the Horseshoe undoes any chance for them.  I hate to see Urban do it, but I'd have to wonder what's going on in Columbus if he didn't go 12-0 in the regular season.  The toughest contest for them will be at Northwestern?  No offense, I love NW, but really?  (Again, this is because I think Michigan is very overrated)

Big Ten Title
I suppose anything can happen, but Urban Meyer coaching this Ohio State team is a legitimate top 5 team.  Given the ease with which they should manage a not intimidating schedule, I think 13-0 is very possible and might be enough to put them in the National Championship game, which is a travesty.  There are at least 10 teams that could go undefeated with this schedule.

American
I see no reason to go against my predictive model which says Louisville goes through conference play undefeated.  They could lose at Cincinnati the last game of the season, but they'll have the conference title and a BCS appearance locked up two weeks prior to that anyway.

ACC Atlantic
Clemson gets Florida State at home.  That win seals the deal.

ACC Coastal
I don't trust Miami or Georgia Tech to get it done.  But Virginia Tech plays road games at both of those teams.  By default, and under protest, I'll take Miami but I sure hope that Beamer Ball beats them down in South Beach on November 9th.

ACC Title
Clemson.  No doubt about it.  I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid, the writing is just on the wall.

BCS Games
This will come in a later post, as the scenarios get pretty complicated and I'd like to explain them before making my picks.

National Championship Game
Urban Meyer and Ohio State probably make it, with Stanford tripping up somewhere against a deep Pac 12 and the Buckeyes skating through a worthless Big Ten.  The SEC champion definitely makes it, who I have as Georgia.  Urban has a long time to prepare and he's pretty good at that.  But I'll go with the underdog playing the senior QB and take Aaron Murray and Georgia over Braxton Miller and the (undisciplined by and unaccountable to their coach) Thugs of Columbus.