BYU at Virginia Prediction

The day has finally arrived.  The teams are all set up in their hotels, nervously waiting for that first hit, catch, kick.  The media in charge of presenting a good game are gnawing at their breakfast, nervously waiting for that first tackle by Eathyn Manumaleuna.  My brother is sitting in a van with his sons and a few good friends, driving up the east coast bound for Charlottesville.  I'm sitting here, decked out in Notre Dame stuff watching College Gameday.

The day is here.  After years of griping about Riley Nelson, after months of off-season analysis about the "go fast, go hard" mantra, and after weeks of worrying about BYU's CBs, now we get to see if it was Riley holding BYU back, if the hurry-up offense can really work for BYU, and if the mish-mash of DBs can actually cover people.

Sure, Virginia isn't the deepest or most talented team in the country.  But they have some solid starters and some potential NFL-ers on the roster, particularly on their offense.  In the first game of the season, just about anything can happen, particularly with so many new coaches for both teams.

Virginia has a guy that can cover Cody Hoffman pretty well in DeMetrious Nicholson.  But do they have enough guys to cover Ridley, Apo, Falslev, and company?  Can Hill actually find those guys down the field?

Virginia's front seven can be vulnerable, they are playing a lot of young players, learning a new system.  However, BYU offensive lines have typically struggled opening holes against any BCS conference front sevens.  Can a new coach, a new attitude, and a new system change years of historical performance and take advantage of a lack of depth and experience?

A new QB will take the field for Virginia, mobile, and much improved.  2 years ago, he was a mediocre QB, but now another season on campus, soaking up knowledge, working on his reads and throws.  Don't be comforted by the fact that Watford, as a true freshmen, didn't throw the ball particularly well on a bad team.  BYU can expect him to complete 55-65% of his passes on this day.  In his first game of the year, Fairchild will find some easy throws for him early on to get his confidence up.  I would expect a lot of early screens, taking advantage of big cushions by new and inexperienced CBs for BYU.  Who will play with confidence in the 3rd Quarter: Watford or BYU's secondary?  That might decide it.

Virginia will bring a lot of smaller, shiftier RBs.  They will be difficult to find behind the Virginia OL and even more difficult to get to the ground once they are found.  Can the DL eat up the Virginia OL and give the LBs a better shot to find those guys?  Will the LBs bring them down on first contact after a camp with not a lot of hitting?

I think BYU has enough to get it done but I don't expect a big blowout like many BYU fans do.  BYU doesn't typically do that in season openers, against BCS opponents, on the road.  I'm not sold on Hill restoring a massive scoring machine in his first game as a sophomore.  I don't believe BYU's front 7 will be as strong as last year's and they will not shut down the run like last season, and BYU fans across the board expect a secondary not quite as good.  As  result, I expect a few more points this game than Greg Wrubell.  I'll go with BYU beating Virginia by 6 points, 26-20.