Notre Dame 2013 Prediction

After spring ball, even with Everett Golson still as the starting QB, I looked at Notre Dame as a 9-3 type of team in 2013.  The schedule wasn't overwhelming, but I thought the team would take a step back this season before launching ahead in 2014.  They lost a lot of leadership and almost all of the offensive firepower (minus Golson).  After Golson was removed from the university, I actually didn't think it would change the outcome of the season that much.  To be honest, for a lot of the season, Golson made as many big mistakes as he did big plays.  So, in my opinion, it is probably close enough to a wash to replace the young but agile Golson with the seasoned but statue-like Rees.

After working through a statistical model to rate the teams and after looking at the schedule a little more closely, it seemed a lot more manageable for Notre Dame to return to a BCS game in 2013 with 10 or 11 wins.

The Schedule
There are a few natural groupings in ND's schedule.  There should be blowouts (Temple, Air Force, and Navy), games that will challenge but end in a comfortable ND victory (Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU), games that will be a challenge and I give a slight edge to ND (Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, USC), and a game that ND will lose (Stanford).  It's definitely a manageable schedule for what should be a good team.

The O
My biggest concern for ND in the offseason was RB and WR.  Occasionally, RBs have stellar freshmen seasons, but typically, because of the brutality of the position, freshmen can't carry large loads at RB.  ND has one or two frosh that will have to HELP shoulder the load.  There is certainly some talent at RB, but it's young, it's unproven, and they won't have a mobile QB to take some of the burden off of them.  Freshmen tend to fare better at WR.  There are fewer hits and significantly less contact.  Weight isn't as important for durability.  Speed, height, jumping ability probably won't change significantly over 4 years, so why couldn't freshmen be effective?  Notre Dame has some big, fast WRs with good hands.  I was very impressed with what I saw out of Corey Robinson and DaVaris Daniels (sophomore) this fall.  TJ Jones was a solid contributor last season (when Golson was in the game, not so much when Rees was), even if he is a bit small.  Rees will probably target Daniels, Robinson, and Daniel Smith.

The OL will certainly be up to snuff in most of the games.  I worry a little bit about Michigan State's, Oklahoma's, and Stanford's front 7 and the challenge they will present to the Irish OL.  They have time to experience growing pains before those games though.

The D
3 key defenders graduated from last season's team: Manti, Zeke Motta, and Kapron Lewis-Moore.  Since then, Danny Spond's career ended and back-up DL Tony Springmann injured his knee.  After KLM left, I think a lot of ND folks wondered if Sheldon Day could fill the void, and it appears it will have to be a committee effort.  Sheldon isn't as big, strong, or agile as KLM, and with some inexperience in the LBs behind them, ND can't afford a big dropoff.  I still see this as the big issue facing the Irish, especially against Michigan State and Stanford.

LB is also a potentially thin position group too.  True frosh Jaylon Smith was announced as the starting OLB after the retirement of Danny Spond.  He was the #1 recruit at his position, but it's very rare for freshmen to be standouts at LB.  Prince Shembo and Dan Fox bring back a lot of experience and can help the young guy grow up.  He gets one game under his belt before Michigan will test him in every way they can.

The Corners were a surprising bright spot for ND last season.  They had a lot of injuries preseason, so now they have a lot of experience and competition.  From what I saw of the DBs this fall, they are physical, cover well, and play the ball extremely well.  The Irish will need them to be very good in pass coverage so LBs can focus more on run defense.  Oklahoma is really the only pass heavy O they will be tested by.  BYU throws the ball around and could present a challenge there, but a bend-but-don't-break defense with physical corners should be able to neutralize their WRs in the red zone.

Outlook
Irish haters will be out in full force again this season, but I believe the Irish will win 10 or 11 games and receive/earn an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game in January.  With Golson, I would have leaned on the high side and given ND 11 wins.  I think there are one or two games THIS season where the Irish could have benefited from his big plays.  With Rees, whom I never booed last year (though maybe that's just a sign that I'm not a true Notre Dame fan), I'd say his inability to move around/extend plays with his feet might hurt ND's chances against OU, ASU, and USC, and they'll drop one of those games on their way to a 10-2 season and a BCS berth.