University of Utah 2013 Prediction

My prediction for Utah's upcoming season, to quote Clubber Lang in Rocky III: pain!

2014 Might Be Good
I think there is reason for optimism for 2014 for the Utes.  Their young offensive line will be a year older.  Their young QB will have a full season under his belt.  The defense isn't as deep as it has been in years' past, but a lot of young players should see action.  If somehow they can keep Coach Erickson to hang around more than one year.  But they haven't done that with very many OCs in recent years.

Consistent Consistency Problems on O
2013, however, I don't foresee going very well for them.  They bring in yet another new offensive coordinator.  They have no proven RBs on the roster and are relying almost exclusively on JC transfers to establish the running game.  Those generally aren't the kind of guys that can get you 4 yards on 3rd and 3 or consistently get 5 yards on 1st and 10.  The WRs, while explosive, are not the kind of guys that can lead a long, time-consuming drive down the field.  With the exception of Jake Murphy, there is not a pass-catcher that can convert consistently on 3rd down.  In addition, the offensive line is one of the more inexperienced ones in the country, which means it is unlikely they can consistently open big holes for the unproven RBs or give the QBs time to make big plays down the field to the WRs.

Lack of Big Plays
They are relying on the same offense that they relied on in the MWC: hit a couple of big plays a game and that's enough to win.  Under Whittingham, Utah has never really had an offense that can consistently (my buzz-word to describe what's missing from Utah's offense) drive the ball down the field.  In the MWC, that generally worked, but at the same time, it explains why nearly every year, they lost to one of the bottom tier teams in the conference: the big play wasn't there that particular game.

Now, in the Pac 12, the big play is there even less frequently, so the need for a consistent drive every now and again is increased significantly.  In addition, the other thing the Utes had going for them in the MWC is that their defense kept them in it until the O could hit that big play.  In the Pac, the opposing offenses are putting up too many points too quickly for the big play to matter.  By the time Utah can hit a big play, if it comes at all, they are down 2 or 3 scores (and when a team is ahead 2 or 3 scores, they play more conservative defense making a big play less likely).

Losses by Double Digits
With more 3 and outs than usual, the D gets less rest.  And it spirals downward from there.  In 2 seasons in the Pac 12, Utah has lost 8 conference games BY DOUBLE DIGITS.  Of 11 conference losses, 8 games sent fans to their cars long before the time expired.  That's a whopping 73%.  In 6 years in the MWC under K-Whit, Utah lost 4 conference games by double digits (twice to TCU, once to UNLV, and once to Wyoming) in 14 conference losses (29%).

Outlook for 2013
I don't see any reason to think this year will be any different than the last two in the Pac.  If K-Whit can lose by double digits to UNLV or Wyoming, then they could get blown out by anybody in the Pac 12.  I think they'll lose by double digits to (at least) Stanford, USC, and Oregon.  It isn't out of the realm of possibilities to add either Oregon State, Arizona, or Arizona State to that list as well.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Utah State or BYU beat Utah.  This is a team (and a fanbase) that have prided themselves on belonging in "the Pac" now, basically believing they have left MWC and in-state foes behind.  Yet they are 2.5-point favorites AT HOME against former WAC member Utah State.  Vegas adds 3 points to the home team, so Vegas thinks Utah State is BETTER.  BYU was listed a week ago as a 7-point favorite in the game against Utah.  They probably need to win both of those games to get bowl eligible.  I think they'll lose at least one, if not both.

5-7, 3-6 in Pac 12
I'll call it 5 wins and 7 losses, with two of those wins coming in close contests against teams below them in the conference standings.  If Utah can't actually win those 2 games, there won't be many teams below them in the conference standings!