Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week Two vs. Texas

My model loves Texas, giving them a rating of 4th out of 126 FBS teams.  My model ranks Texas as double-digit favorites in 9 of their 12 games.  In fact, they are favored to win 5 of its games by 20+ points: New Mexico State, at Iowa State, Kansas, at West Virginia, and Texas Tech.  The 3 challenges are Ole Miss (9-point home win), vs. Oklahoma (9-point neutral site win), and at TCU (5-point road win).  The game at BYU and the game vs. OK State are projected to be 11 and 13-point wins.  The model loves Texas and the BYU game is no different.  My model puts Texas squarely in the discussion for a national championship.

With that said, Texas will always be a top tier team when it comes to a model like mine.  They get top-tier recruits, they play in one of the toughest conferences in America, they schedule quite a few wins in non-conference in addition to playing Kansas and Iowa State every year in conference, and they have had a reasonable amount of success on the field b/c of those great recruits and "gimme" games.  Texas has always had some phenomenal parts, but since Colt McCoy departed, they haven't really had a leader to put it together.  BYU is the opposite of that.  BYU's team is typically greater than the sum of its parts (as much as many BYU fans don't want to admit that their individual "parts" aren't that great).

So, while the model predicts a comfortable, two-score Texas win at BYU, I would expect the game to play a bit closer.  Though, I do not disagree with the result.  Even if BYU plays it close, I expect Texas to emerge victorious in the end, and a double-digit win certainly isn't out of the question.  This team is pretty stacked and experienced.

Texas has a defense that appears to quite formidable.  They have talent, experience, and depth at each level of the defense.  Their two best defensive players are gone (Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor), but the entire rest of the 2-deep is back with 5 new stud freshmen to help fill in.  Their OL has a ton of experience too: all 5 starters are in their 3rd or 4th season starting.  That means all of these guys were starters were BYU came to Austin.  If they can figure out how to get consistent play at QB from junior David Ash or senior Case McCoy, they should be solid.  They return their top 4 RBs from last year and 5 of their top 6 WRs.  It is as if the struggles of the past 3 years have been building for THIS year.

Have no fear, BYU fans, it certainly isn't out of the question to expect BYU to pull out a win.  I was in Austin a few years' back when BYU controlled the action for most of the game.  Texas fans were shocked, their Longhorns were on the ropes against this new independent.  Remember that this was with Jake Heaps at the helm!  So, BYU's 2013 team should certainly be better than the Heaps-led version.  Texas should be better too...but this time BYU has the home edge AND the altitude on their side.  Still, I'm taking Texas 27-17...