Moving On to Virginia

As BYU turns its practice focus from fall camp to Virginia today, I will do the same.  After keeping up with Virginia's progress during camp, knowing what we know about their new coordinators (Steve Fairchild on O and Jon Tenuta on D), here is what I think I know about the 2013 Virginia squad:

Defense
The front 7 for Virginia will be aggressive and physical, albeit not very deep.  It will be a good test for BYU's OL, to see if they can "go fast, go hard" against a group of active linebackers.  On the flip side, the aggressive nature of a defense can lead to over-pursuit which can lead to big holes (or tackles for loss, I suspect we'll see a fair share of both in week one).  Even if UVa controls the line of scrimmage early, it is unlikely that this group will be able to maintain dominance for 4 quarters.  They severely lack depth however, which is always a factor early in the season.  Being in game shape takes a few games.

While Jon Tenuta spent many years as a defensive backs coach at 7 different schools, this does not appear to be a very talented secondary for him to work with.  They will miss tackles, particularly against physical running backs, and there are definitely plays to be made down the field in the passing game against this bunch.  If Tenuta decides to play aggressive in the front 7, that leaves a lot of islands for the back 4, with Taysom's agility, quickness, and arm strength, there could be opportunities for QB scrambles and big plays down the field to the WRs.

I would be shocked if BYU, even with a new offense, didn't have at least 6-8 plays over 20 yards.  I would anticipate some early struggles for the O (so be patient), as they adjust to Virginia's personnel and blitz packages.  The 2nd half, however, if not the 2nd quarter, should showcase a lot of yards and, hopefully, a fair amount of points.

Offense
The Cavs feature smaller, shifty backs and WRs, and only one or two "big" receivers.  I expect Fairchild to do a lot of read option with his mobile QB as well.  There will be misdirection, gadget plays, and a lot of screens.  He will test the discipline of the BYU DEs.  Ziggy was supremely athletic but also gifted at reading plays.  He could read screens, stay home on trick plays, and make plays on the zone-read, regardless of whether the ball was handed off or kept by the QB.

The Wahoos will run a lot of Pro Set, with a FB, TE, and split WRs.  Fairchild loves getting the ball out to FBs in the flat and TEs across the middle.  He stretches the D horizontally in the running and short passing game.  When he gets the D leaning outside, he goes mid-range over the middle to TEs when safeties have bailed.  I think he will put a ton of pressure on BYU's front 7 to defend every part of the field.  When he is done with that, he'll take shots at the inexperienced cornerbacks on the outside and deep.

With that being said, I don't believe Virginia has a very good offensive line.  There is a lot of youth and if one BYU guy (say Kaufusi or Van Noy) start making plays early, there may be occasions of missed assignments as the game wears on.  With that said, I'm not sure they can block BYU's front 7 consistently for 4 quarters even if they are "on assignment," unless fatigue or injury plays a  major role.

Overall
Head Coach Mike London remade his staff after last season.  He brought in 2 former head coaches to help with an offense that has struggled mightily in 3 of his 4 seasons at Virginia.  New OC Steve Fairchild dropped 42 on BYU his first year at CSU, but scored 23 and 10 in the last two contests against them.  Defensively, Jon Tenuta is the right guy to help fix a bad defense.  But he's not a miracle worker.  Give him some time and it will happen, but he has minimal size and football IQ to work with.  In addition, he doesn't have much depth.  BYU may struggle early in this game, they may have to dig deep, but if they don't emerge victorious then I have doubts about their mental (and physical) fortitude for the season.