Statistical Model and BYU Opponents: Week One at Virginia

My model ranks Virginia as the 84th team out of 126 in FBS this season.  The model predicts a 4-8 season for the Cavaliers.  Their biggest strength is the 9 returning starters on offense.  Their biggest weakness is that they only have 4 quarterback starts on the roster, all of those coming from a transfer listed as the backup.

Their DL is smaller than an average ACC line (269 pounds/player in the 2-deep), which contributes to a porous D that gave up 28.9 points/game last season.  This season, 3 of the 8 in the projected 2-deep are seniors, which should help anchor it a bit in terms of experience.  Virginia Tech is one team that has found success in the ACC with a typically smaller DL, so it can be done.  However, last year's Georgia Tech team employed a small DL like Virginia and BYU fans well remember how that turned out...46 carries for 183 yards and a bunch of rushing TDs.

Looking at Virginia's opponent from last season, the team that looked most similar, in terms of offensive philosophy and offensive line to BYU this year, was North Carolina.  In spite of a home crowd of 45k+, UNC piled up 446 total yards and 37 points in a blowout win.

In 4 seasons under HC Mike London, the Cavaliers have yet to average more than 26 points/game while giving up more than 26 points/game 3 out of 4 seasons.  In 3 of those 4 seasons, UVa has won their home opener.  However, all 4 games, including the one loss, were to FCS teams.  Virginia hosts Oregon the week following BYU, so they really need this game if they have any hopes about getting bowl eligible.  They may go .500 in 6 division games, but they draw what are likely two of the more difficult teams from the other division.

My model, however, says that BYU is 9 points better than Virginia.  Giving the Cavaliers a 3-point home-field edge (which may generous in this instance where attendance is likely to be low, as expectations are low, and BYU may bring as many as 10,000-12,000 fans to the game), it says a 6-point win for BYU.  My personal opinion would be that BYU ends up winning by double digits, in spite of Virginia's experience on offense, maybe something like 31-20.