BYU 2013 Prediction

The Offense
As tempting as it is to say that Taysom Hill is "the real deal" and will resurrect BYU's chances at a special season, let's remember a few things.  1) He is just a sophomore with limited experience.  2) He is coming off a major injury.  3) He just learned a totally new offense.  4) He has a revamped offensive line, several guys of whom went to their first practice just 3 weeks ago.  5) He will face some tough defenses this season.  Now I believe Taysom will have a good season and can pull BYU out of some difficult spots.  But let's not call him the savior of BYU football.  He is an upgrade from Riley Nelson, but there's a lot of moving parts to his personnel, his offense, and his coaching staff.

I suspect BYU fans will be invigorated by the restoration of the big play to the BYU offense.  I think BYU will have a lot more plays of over 20 yards than there have been the past few years.  In Anae's first stint as OC at BYU, 3rd and 9 was not a terrifying down b/c seemingly most of BYU's successful pass plays weren't for more yards than that anyway.  The hurry-up scheme that Anae is bring has potential, particularly in the run game, to allow for bigger plays than usual.

However, the flip side is that BYU will probably see a lot fewer methodical drives.  Where BYU consistently gained 3-5 yards on running plays, I suspect we'll see a lot more going for 0-2 yards, and then some corresponding 5-7 yard rushes to keep the average about the same.  It can be a frustrating brand of football to watch at times.  It also puts a lot more pressure on Taysom Hill in constant longer distance situations.

Still, if the offense can stay healthy, and the OL can figure it out, the offense will be significantly better than last year's version, which clearly held BYU back.  After averaging 28 points/game last season, I actually suspect a better offense will probably hold pat on points per game.  The 28 ppg came because of 5 games with over 40 points.  I don't see a lot of potential for BYU to score 40 points on this season's schedule.

The Defense
There are issues at defensive line.  I've had concerns all along about that.  Yes, the starters are probably quite good, but they can't play all 65-75 plays each game.  They can play 50, maybe, and even that is probably pushing limits of health and fatigue.  Ideally, Bronco would probably rather see that number about 40 for his starters, maximum.  But Bronco clearly doesn't trust the guys behind them.  If Texas or Utah roll into town committed to running the football, are there enough bodies with enough stamina to stop them cold for 4 quarters?  I think the answer is no.  So let's hope they don't do that.

The LBs are only as good as the DL in BYU's scheme.  If the DL don't eat up 4 or 5 blockers, the backers won't have the same ability to make plays.  So, when the starters are in and fresh, I suspect that the LBs will be just fine.  I'll be curious to monitor BYU's scoring by quarters, if the D gives up more points after halftime than before.

The DBs should be serviceable.  The safeties are good.  There are capable backups there too.  The corners certainly aren't worse than what BYU had in 2008, where BYU won 10 games.  They probably won't see a lot to test them in isolation, but in zone coverage down the field, they will have some opportunities to get burned.

As a whole, the defense shouldn't be bad, but I wouldn't look at this D on paper and say it will be a great defense.  It can be good, but it might only be above average.  It's a possibility.  I think the defensive points/game will move up from that 14 ppg from last season.  It could approach 21, but my guess is it will hover between 17-20.

Outlook
Taysom Hill will be a good, but let's keep it real about him.  The fast-break offense will cause some frustration for him and will put him in some difficult situations.  In some of those situations, he will be great, in others, he will be a sophomore.  It's the nature of the beast.  All of his coaching and improving didn't take place in vacuum: other teams were practicing and receiving coaching too.  While Taysom Hill might be good, he will see some good defenses that may have him running for his life.

BYU figures to play in a lot of close games this season.  My guess is they'll have between 6-8 games decided by a single score, a single play, or a single kick and how Taysom, the D, and Justin Sorensen perform in those situations will determine whether BYU wins 6 or 11 or anywhere in between.  Vegas had the O/U on BYU wins at 8.5 last I checked and right now, I'm LEANING to the Under as I give them 8 wins.

A strong showing against Virginia might move me up to 9, but I don't expect that strong of a showing.  I really do believe in baby steps for this offense and for the secondary and DL.  Additionally, BYU doesn't tend to blow anyone out on the road early in the season.  The last time BYU scored more than 21 points in a road game in September was in 2009 against Tulane.  So for those looking for a lot of fireworks, I fear you'll be disappointed until probably October.  I don't see BYU dropping 35+ points until the Middle Tennessee game at the absolute earliest, but it's entirely possible it might not be until Georgia Tech, or even Idaho State...and I'm not sure BYU does that in a road game until Nevada.

BYU 8-4.  I hope I'm wrong.