Media Poll Thoughts, Part II

#5 Wyoming:
Good pick at number 5.  Coming off one of the more thrilling bowl games, and the first winning season in 5 years, I like them here.  They bring back 17 starters from a team that survived the toughest schedule in the country last year, managing to go to a bowl game and win it.  They are scheduled to play 2 top-10 teams in the non-conference (at Texas and hosting Boise State).  They switched defenses from a 4-3 to a 3-4, which was always a trademark of the good Wyoming teams of the mid-90's.  There are a lot more LBs to recruit in the farms of Wyoming than DL.  They haven't done enough to show they can pass the Big 3, or even Air Force, but, provided that their returning QB, Austyn Carta-Samuels, does not experience "the sophomore slump" and that they deal with some losses in the early part of the schedule, they could eke their way back to a bowl game.  If they can survive the 3-game stretch at TCU, Utah, at BYU at 1-2, they SHOULD make 7-5 before the bowls.

#6 San Diego State:
Had as good a year last year as they have had in a long time.  Kind of sad that 4-8 is one of your better years in recent memory.  They have a great coaching staff.  They have a lot of tall, fast receivers.  They lack playmakers at RB, and size is always a concern for their OL and DL.  But they are tough, though not deep.  Last year they just collapsed down the stretch, losing their last 4 games.  The schedule lays out a little nicer this season for them, with 3 winnable non-conference games.  They also have 3 winnable conference home games against Air Force, CSU, and UNLV.  The big one to me is that Utah game: Utah will be coming off a stretch of at Air Force, TCU, and at Notre Dame, looking a week ahead to perhaps the final regular season BYU-Utah game.  Of course, SDSU is coming back from a road game against TCU, so...

#7 Colorado State:
This is a bit of a surprise for last year's last-place finisher to be picked 7th, though not too surprising.  Coach Fairchild is entering his third year at the helm, and has had some decent recruiting classes.  But he lost a lot of players from last year's team.  The good news is they weren't that good anyway.  The O-Line underperformed, the QBs couldn't hang onto the ball, and the D couldn't stop anybody, the red zone D being particularly bad.  I think a 7th-place finish is a bit of a stretch for them.  They do have a good schedule: the better opponents are, for the most part, spread out throughout the season.

#8 UNLV:
The new coaching staff is a big question mark.  Bobby Hauck ran a powerhouse program at the FCS level.  Can he succeed in Vegas where most others have failed?  Well, I don't anticipate he'll be playing for National Championships, but he could have the level where John Robinson had it in the 90's: going to bowl games more often than not.  I think they have been close for a few years now and never quite got there.  A new coach can either push you over the hump, or set you back.  I think they are more likely to go over the hump than get set back, but apparently the MWC Media disagrees.  They bring back a lot of experience.  The bad news is that it's all the same guys they had last year...All 4 of their non-conference games are against bowl teams from last year, plus the 5 conference games against bowl teams from last year.  With 13 games on the schedule (they play at Hawaii and get a 13th game as a result) they'd have to be 7-6 to play in a bowl game.  It would take a mini-miracle to pull that off, even in the Vegas desert.  They could finish easily higher than 8th though...

#9 New Mexico:
Last year was a struggle from start to finish.  They will definitely be better than last year.  They were that bad that they couldn't be any worse...well, I guess that depends.  They are going to start the year 0-3.  That is tough to recover from.  But if they don't get their first win until October, it'll still be an improvement on last year's season.  Again, I think they'll be better than last year, but that still won't be good enough for a bowl game.  At best, they finish 7th in the MWC this season.  They have some good, young talent.  But they are at least a year away from threatening to go to a bowl game.