A Look At New Mexico

Offense: they are starting a sophomore QB.  Apparently he eked it out over two freshmen.  At least he will be behind a big offensive line.  They have 3 experienced, but young, running backs.  They return two of their most productive WRs and their best TE.  The problem is: these are the same guys that played on last year's 1-11 team, that only broke 20 points 3 times all season.  But with a less experienced quarterback.  Honestly though, I think Porterie was being asked to do things he didn't want to do.  If your QB doesn't trust the coaching staff, the team isn't going to do well.  Mr. Holbrook isn't going to have an ego problem.

Defense: well, they stunk last year, but at least most of those guys are gone!  The offense was bad last year: their defense was pathetic.  They bring back their 3 best pass rushers, plus they added one of the top DTs coming out of high school.  Their biggest problem is in the secondary.  In a run-first league, which the MWC is with few exceptions, you can't give up 250 passing yards a game.  Worse than that: you can't give up 40+ points 5 times.  That's just bad.  Their "best" game was giving up only 20 points to New Mexico State, who was 3-10 in the WAC.  That's even worse.  The good news: it can't possibly get worse than that.  Can it?

Schedule: non-conference games at Oregon and New Mexico State, with home games against Texas Tech and UTEP.  They could win at New Mexico State or against UTEP, but probably not both of those.  1-3 in the non-conference.

MWC home games are against Utah, SDSU, Wyoming, and TCU.  They could beat SDSU or Wyoming.  They were 4-8 two years ago and gave a BCS-busting Utah team a run for their money.  They have only been within 3 TDs of TCU once since they joined the MWC.  I see this as a 2-2, best case, more likely a 1-3 record.

MWC road games are against UNLV, CSU, Air Force, and BYU.  The first three are winnable, given that Air Force is later in the year when Air Force tends to wear down, with a 3-game stretch leading up to it in at TCU, Utah, and at Army.  I could see them going 2-2, best case, but I'd put money on 1-3.

Outlook: well, I've got them down for 3-9 this year, with a legitimate chance to get a fourth win (if they build enough confidence they could even cap out at 5 wins...but no more than that).  The future is bright though: 2011 could potentially be a bowl year and 2012 they will be likely be led by a third year starting QB, behind a fairly solid O-Line.  They have a bunch of freshmen, redshirt freshmen, and sophomores who are 300 pounds already.  By then they will have developed some skills to go with their size.  Their skill positions are loaded with younger players, as is the secondary.  Patience, Lobos, patience.  Basketball season isn't too far behind now, and it's just 12 more months until next football season starts with a lot more promise.