Here are my thoughts about this CSU team:
Offense: they have a lot of depth and talent, but they are very inexperienced. They have a decent-sized O-line, but they are a little small on the right side (better to have the beef on the left side to protect the QB's blind side), and quite green. However, all of these younger players are Coach Fairchild's recruits, so he can't complain if they don't perform. They have a couple of big, tall WRs and the lone small guy is their most experienced. They have a potential NFL fullback, leading for a less experienced tailback. They are starting a freshman QB who was a BCS recruit. There are growing pains associated with youth on the O-Line and at QB. They are probably more talented than last year, but experience is huge in a conference with BYU, Utah, TCU, and Air Force.
Defense: they have a lot of experience on the first line, but they have pretty much zero depth. They just haven't been able to recruit very good defensive players. They have a good mix of size and speed on the D-Line, but in that 4-3 system against the lines you see at TCU, BYU, and Utah, you can't have backup DTs under 275, and both of theirs are under 265 (one under 250). They can't afford any injuries in the front 7. The secondary should be the better part of their defense but, again, any injuries there and they are playing true freshmen. Look for this unit to start the year strong and fade the second half of the season.
Schedule: their non-conference schedule puts them on a neutral field against Colorado, at Nevada and Miami (OH), and finishing with a home game against Idaho. They should hope to go 2-2, but it's probably more likely to go 1-3. They don't have the horses to contain CU (not a good sign for their season) or Nevada. It's always tough for a bottom-feeder MWC school to head into MAC territory and Idaho is on the up-and-up, winning a bowl game last season for the first time ever (I think, maybe it was their second one...). Scratch that, they could be 0-4...
Their conference home games are TCU, UNLV, New Mexico, and BYU. If they had BYU earlier in the season they would have a chance, but with their depth issues on defense, that isn't likely. New Mexico and UNLV are winnable games. TCU is a loss. Best case: 2-2, but more likely is 1-3.
Their conference road games are Air Force, Utah, San Diego State, and Wyoming. They could get the San Diego State or Wyoming games, but at that point in the season they are looking at being 2-7 or 3-6. Winnable games are less winnable after losing so many in a row. I think best case here is 1-3, but they could go 0-fer.
Outlook: I think this is a "throwaway" season for the Rams. Too many young guys on offense. Too little depth on defense. The schedule would be manageable for a better team. When things starting going bad last year, they completely folded. I would hope they are more mentally tough than that this year. If they are, they could go 4-8, perhaps even 5-7. However, with the more winnable games at the end of the year and no byes during the season, it could snowball. More likely to see them 3-9 again. If Fairchild is around next year, however, they could make a push toward the middle of the league. This year, however, they are looking at 8th or 9th.
Looks like a good analysis; just think they beat the Y in LaVell's last year as coach. My how they have fallen since the 1990's.
ReplyDeleteYeah, people forget how amazing CSU was in the early part of this decade. They were competing for a conference championship nearly every year at the onset of the MWC. But Sonny, whom I loved, let them slide his last 3 or 4 years and the cupboard was totally bare when Fairchild, whom I hate, got there. They have improved offensively, but the defense has not improved a lick.
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