A Look at San Diego State

Offense: They bring back a lot of the pieces from their passing attack.  Three of the top 4 receivers come back, and they weren't just top by default, they are pretty good: watch out for Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson to both push for 1,000 yards this season.  Their QB comes back a year older and wiser after a 3,000 yard season.  Four of the 5 offensive linemen return.  Their 6'4" 255 pound TE comes back.  The main concern from last year was the running game (116th in the nation in yards per game, 115th in yards per carry), which led to another problem: scoring points.  It's tougher to throw in the red zone where the throwing lanes get smaller, so they turned the ball over a lot (1.5 INTs thrown per game) and scored less.  With four of the 5 linemen back, they should be able to run more.  They have a stud freshman running back named Ronnie Hillman who is supposed to be the second coming of Marshall Faulk.  But he's a freshman, and if he is supposed to carry the load for the season, he will wear down about game 8 or 9 and be ineffective down the stretch.  If Ryan Lindley cuts down on the picks and if they can find a second running back to share the load, they will put up a lot of points, perhaps 28-plus/game, which would be enough to push for a bowl game.

Defense: to me, their struggles on D last year started upfront.  They couldn't get pressure on QBs (89th in sacks/game) and couldn't stop the run (85th in rushing defense).  They are more experienced there this season, but the problem is: they are playing the same guys as last year!  If they improve, that will open things up behind them.  In the defense's defense, they were playing in a 3-3-5 last season, which was new to most of the players.  A year under their belt should help, since a lot of players understand the system better.  Rocky Long has had a year to instill a little more toughness in the secondary, which is critical in the 3-3-5.  The problem is they have taller, leaner players in the back 5.  I see this unit improving this season over the 30.5 points/game they gave up last year, but maybe not that substantially.  If they can improve enough to give up less than 28/game, they could easily move into that rotating 5th spot in the conference (Wyoming last year, CSU the year before).

Schedule: the non-conference is fairly breezy with 3 winnable games.  I-AA opponent Nicholls State to open the season, then at New Mexico State, at Missouri, and finishing with Utah State at home.  They will beat Nicholls State and New Mexico State.  They will fall to Mizzou.  Utah State is a bit of a toss-up.  We'll call it a win, as Utah State might be looking ahead to Riley Nelson and BYU the following week.  So in the non-conference they will be halfway to bowl eligibility.

Conference home games are Air Force, Colorado State, Utah, and UNLV.  3 of the 4 are in November, where I expect the undersized defense and freshman running back to be a little worn down.  I think they should go 2-2 (which they will probably need to get to a bowl game), but could also go 1-3 in this stretch.  The UNLV "rivalry" game comes after SDSU plays at TCU and then against Utah, however, bowl eligibility may be on the line there for both teams.  So it might actually be a game worth watching!

Conference road games are BYU, New Mexico, Wyoming, and TCU.  In conference they went 1-3 on the road last year (overall road record was 1-5).  On paper, they should beat New Mexico and could beat Wyoming and lose to BYU and TCU.  The only ones I feel confident predicting are BYU and TCU losses.  They get New Mexico after a bye (harder to win) and get Wyoming after they play at BYU (easier to win), so I anticipate a split there for a 1-3 record.  They could go 2-0 in that UNM-Wyo stretch though.  Until they prove they can win on the road, I'm calling it 1-3.

Outlook: I think they will be improved from their 4-8 season last year.  I feel confident that they should win at least 5 games, but I don't see them getting any more than 6.  If the D does come around maybe they could get 7.  If the O can't figure out how to run, they may remain at 4.