...to know what is actually going on. The MWC has invited Fresno State and Nevada. That is official. That is the ONLY OFFICIAL news about this whole thing right now. There are reports that say that Fresno State and Nevada have accepted. There are reports that neither can afford the recently added $5M buyout to leave the WAC. There are reports that Nevada never signed such an agreement. First off, how can a board of directors receive an invitation and accept it in the same day, when yesterday they had no idea that the invitation would come?
Also, there is nothing official about BYU going independent. I keep hearing "done deal." Texas was once a done deal too. Would the potential move by Fresno State and Nevada "undo" it? Perhaps those moves would be enough to revamp the TV deal in such a way to keep BYU? Honestly, I think the move was done to screw BYU, not to try to convince them to stay. They could have moved for a Conference USA school like Houston, which would help them much more, but they chose to go after WAC universities.
If the WAC only has 6 teams, they dissipate unless they add at least 2 more members. Football-wise, the WAC couldn't add anybody at Fresno State or Nevada's level: they don't have enough to offer Houston. If BYU couldn't land its other sports in the WAC, is football independence a viable option?
Would the West Coast Conference be a potential fit? There's a lot of Saints in the WCC, i.e. religious schools. Between St. Mary's and Gonzaga, the hoops is a decent draw. As far as other sports, who cares? The MWC, WAC, WCC? If there is a difference in level of competition, the average person doesn't have any idea.
As I said earlier today, I was against the move when I read last night that it was a consideration. Unfortunately, I don't have my notes with me, so I can't be as thorough as I would like. First off, for football it's a much better situation. More revenue. More exposure. Two things that the MWC has not done for them anymore than the old WAC did. BYU got as much TV revenue and more exposure in one football game aired on ESPN last season than they did from 11 other football games, one dominating bowl win, 35+ basketball games, and an NCAA Tournament win combined. If ESPN paid them $1M for 2-4 games a year, they are already making more money. If BYU-TV was able to broadcast other games, or if they got on CBS-CS against Service Academies or NBC with Notre Dame, they could stand to easily triple, quadruple, or perhaps more their TV revenue. Plus a package with ESPN and BYU-TV would make it easier to schedule games than this sales pitch: come play us and you can be on the Mtn. No, the picture is always that fuzzy, no, they don't usually have a first down line on the TV, and yes, the announcers always say stupid stuff like that. Obviously, increase revenue and exposure from football is huge!
However, basketball is (and other sports are) definitely getting hurt. They are going from a 3-bid league to a one-bid league. They SHOULD dominate the WAC, but EVERY loss counts double what an MWC loss would. Last season, BYU didn't win the conference championship. They didn't even play in the MWC Tournament Final. They lost 5 games to MWC opponents. They still managed a 7-seed in the NCAA tournament. If they lose 2 or 3 games in the WAC, they are firmly on the bubble. With an easier schedule, the margin for error decreases substantially. I don't like what this does to hoops: Dave Rose has built this program up after Steve Cleveland laid the foundation. A switch to the WAC could unravel that. The WCC has a better reputation right now than the WAC.
Football scheduling becomes better and harder all at once. They have the freedom to NOT go to Laramie, Albuquerque, or Fort Collins. That is exciting. However, the freedom to schedule 12 games that you actually want to play means that you have to get 12 non-conference games. BYU has struggled to get 4 OOC games at times, and after beating Oklahoma last year, that should get even tougher: nobody wants to play BYU because they might lose. Washington opted out of the last two games in their series with BYU to add I-AA teams. Also, any goodwill BYU basketball built up as a member of the MWC disappears when it goes to the WAC. Coach Rose stated that they approached over half of the BCS schools for games this year. UCLA is the only BCS addition to the schedule (Arizona was already on the schedule from a two-year contract)! Out of nearly 40 schools approached, they only got ONE! In the WAC, that number may not go down, but it certainly won't go up either.
Well, I had some other points, but if Fresno State and Nevada end up joining the MWC, which it appears they have done (maybe, or not), the rest isn't valid anymore. The extension of the invitations itself says: the MWC isn't going to do ANYTHING for BYU. BYU loses its leverage. It loses its chance to prove to the Big XII how financially valuable they would be as an addition to the conference. BYU is now the Missouri of the MWC. And even if they stay, it'll make for some awkward moments. I have no doubt that BYU could be better off as an independent in football, but I have no reservations about saying, I don't like it one bit and I hope it never happens. I hope the MWC goes one step further and adds Houston, that BYU stays, and that they can renegotiate the TV contract for something more than a paltry $1.33 million per school (of course that isn't likely given that the network has operated in the red every year, and Fresno State and Nevada don't add $1.33M in revenue apiece). Then BYU can wait it out a few years, see what happens with the rest of the conferences, see if the MWC gets a BCS bid or not, and then move forward with its plans should it choose to. It is nice to see that this has pushed the MWC into action! They've been so passive to this point, it's been ridiculous. I hope that BYU does the most sensible thing right now: stay in the MWC! Don't take the money and run!
Once some things get firmly established and announced, I'll see if there's anything more to say and say it. In the meantime, all of you keep giving the rest of us your thoughts, opinions, and any substantiated news. The same sources that said BYU was going independent/WAC for sure are the same sources saying that Fresno State and Nevada are going the MWC. Those two things don't seem like they can happen at the same time.
Anyone realize Thursday marks two weeks until kickoff? CSU announced its starting QB yesterday. Air Force hasn't announced a change in its starting QB, though Conor Dietz has come on strong to battle Tim Jefferson for the starting spot. BYU doesn't appear that it will make its decision anytime soon, so early next week, I'll just give my predictions without that useful piece of information.
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