One Final Thought On Utah's Transition

Sorry, I had planned to write a post about something entirely different yesterday.  I was even going to call a couple of you.  Then our fridge and freezer stopped fridging and freezing and we had to scramble before the contents spoiled.

So I had one final LONG thought over the weekend about the Utes transition to the Pac 12, centering around their defensive philosophy.  The Utes run a very aggressive, high-risk, high-reward type of defense.  They play a lot of bump-n-run, tight, man-free or man-to-man coverage.  They do a lot of blitzing, overloading, and twisting with the front 7.  At least one DB is left on an island nearly every play.  One false step by any defender and a crease becomes a hole.  One missed tackle and a 7-yard completion becomes a 60-yard touchdown.  However, they can and do get away with it in the MWC.  Their defense shuts most MWC opponents down, most of the time.

They have won 28 MWC games over the past 5 years, trailing only TCU, 33, and BYU, 34, in that timeframe.  There are two main reasons behind this: 1) they are extremely well-coached.  They aren't sending 5 and 6 players to the NFL each year because of their stellar recruiting.  They get good players and coach them to be great players.  Those guys are made NFL-ready at Utah, they don't come with all of the tools necessary.  Take Paul Kruger for example, who was drafted as a redshirt sophomore, after a mission.  He was a scrawny, high school QB when he showed up on campus.  He left a 265-pound beast of a defensive end, that dominated an entire half of the big, bad Alabama OL in the Sugar Bowl.  2) With the exception of TCU, the Ute defenders are the most athletic in the MWC.  If they take a bad angle, they can make up for it against the smaller, slower players from the opposing teams.  They can smother guys at every position.  Linemen can't get off their blocks, receivers can't get on their routes, and backs can't break tackles.  They struggle a little bit against TEs in OT though...

However, I will be interested to see if they need to change their defensive philosophy in the Pac 12.  These next tidbits are in no way to discredit the progress of the MWC, but rather to point out some of the differences between playing SDSU, New Mexico, CSU, etc. and Washington State, Arizona State , UCLA, etc.

The Pac 12 teams will have superior athleticism and talent.  The 2010 Utah recruiting will be its best ever BY FAR, and it ranks 7th in the Pac 12.  Every year you go back in time, that 7th drops lower and lower.  Washington State is the only team in the Pac 12 that Utah has outrecruited each of the last 3 years.   Recruiting rankings are certainly not everything and are just rough estimates, but if you look at the teams generally in the top 10 in recruiting, they are the same teams generally in the top 10 in the rankings too.
The Pac 12 teams will have better (and experienced) QBs.  7 of the 11 teams are likely to have a returning starter at QB in 2011.  More than likely, 3 or 4 teams will play a QB with over 20 starts before 2011 even starts.  Most of the Pac 12 QBs were highly recruited, highly talented kids coming out of high school as opposed to MWC schools that almost never have a guy coming in with 3 stars next to his name or a guy leaving to continue their football career after college.
The Pac 12 teams will be better coached than most MWC schools.  While the Pac 12 coaches are, historically speaking, down right now, they compare very favorably to the MWC coaches.  Gary Patterson, Troy Calhoun, and Bronco Mendenhall are the only MWC coaches who have even coached in 3 bowl games.  Dennis Erickson, Rick Neuheisel, and Dan Hawkins have all finished in the top 5.  Chip Kelly took Oregon to a Rose Bowl in his first season.  Mike Riley, Jim Harbaugh, and Mike Stoops have made their respective schools relevant for the first time in a long time, and, in some cases, for the first time ever.  Steve Fairchild, Bobby Hauck, and Dave Christensen are good coaches, an upgrade over their predecessors, but there is a reason they are coaching in Fort Collins, Vegas, and Laramie instead of Seattle, Los Angeles, or even Tempe.
The Pac 12 teams will have bigger and stronger offensive lines.  In the MWC, the Ute defensive line weighs as much as, or more than, the offensive lines at 3 of the 9 MWC schools.  In the Pac 12, they will likely give up an average of 30 pounds, unless the Ute front gets substantially bigger across the board next year.  Some teams will only outweigh them by 15-20 pounds, but USC and UCLA could have a 40-pound advantage, depending on who leaves early, gets injured, etc.
The Pac 12 teams will have bigger and taller WRs, with bigger verticals, better hands, and faster 40 times than most MWC schools.  Most of the Pac 12 teams have a WR depth chart resembling the MWC 1st and 2nd teams by themselves, when looking at height, weight, and speed.  In many cases, the third option at a Pac 12 school would be a star at any MWC school.

I certainly don't anticipate Kyle Whittingham or Kalani Sitake (the current Defensive Coordinator at Utah, as a side note, both of those coaches played their college ball at BYU) to change their philosophy one iota.  But one must wonder: can the aggressive defense work every week for the Utes in the Pac 12?  My guess is, most Pac 12 teams will be surprised at how stout this non-BCS defense is, but will be able to create some mismatches in a way that few MWC schools can.  The fact always remains: the top of the MWC and the top of the Pac 12 are generally comparable, but the bottom of the Pac 12 is as strong as the middle of the MWC.  Given that Utah often struggles against some of the middle MWC teams, I don't anticipate a Rose Bowl for them in 2011.

Still don't believe me that Utes won't compete for the Rose Bowl in 2011: last year Air Force took them to OT in Rice-Eccles before falling after a bad spot on third down, they needed three 4th quarter interceptions to beat a 3-9 CSU team on the road, and they trailed halfway through the 4th quarter against Wyoming at home.  Now substitute Air Force with Oregon State, CSU with Arizona State, and Wyoming with UCLA.