A Look at Air Force

Here are my thoughts on Air Force:

Offense: this is a typical Falcon offense.  They aren't huge upfront.  People mention the O-Line as a weakness because they don't have many starts: guess what, that is Air Force football.  They always play juniors and seniors on the line, so they never have much game experience, but they have plenty of guys who have been around the block and know the system in and out.  The 6 non-OL positions are all in good shape.  Again, they have a lot of juniors and seniors.  A lot of guys who have played a lot of snaps.  A lot of guys who know how to take care of the rock and move the chains.  They should be able to throw more this season than last season with Warzeka and Fogler, plus a more experienced QB (or QBs...).

Defense: like the offense, the defense doesn't really change much from year to year.  You get what you always get.  They have a lot of depth, a lot of experience, but not a lot of size.  This is why they run the 3-4: it suits their personnel better.  They have biggers LBs to make up for the smaller defensive front, as they will always have a smaller defensive front at the Academy.  The secondary is strong (though not as strong as the hype).  Because they lack size in the front, teams often commit to the run against the Falcons, so their passing defense looks better.  What they lack in athleticism, they make up for in smarts.  And they do lack athleticism.

Schedule: very balanced schedule.  Non-conference slate is Northwestern State (FCS school), at Oklahoma, Navy, and at Army.  They should beat Northwestern State, lose to Oklahoma, Navy is a toss-up, and they should beat Army.  A 3-1 record would really help the conference, but beating Navy is a tough challenge, as they haven't done it in with any regularity for a decade, so 2-2 is a better bet until they prove otherwise.

In the conference they get BYU, CSU, Utah, and New Mexico at home.  They should go at least 2-2 there, but I believe this is the year they get either BYU or Utah, and make that 3-1.  They have been close with Utah 3 of the last 4 games but never got over the hump, and they beat them 5 years ago in Rice-Eccles.  They get BYU early in the year when their offense is not in sync.  The best time of the year to play BYU is September.  Air Force should get at least one of those two.

They travel to Wyoming, San Diego State, TCU, and UNLV.  They may have some troubles at Wyoming and San Diego State, but I think they still SHOULD win both of those games.  They will lose to TCU in Fort Worth and will beat UNLV in Vegas.  As with the other groupings, 2-2 is the worst you'll see, but I would anticipate them to go 3-1.

Outlook: if you do the math, I've got them probably about 8-4, maybe as good as 9-3.  I believe they'll have a 6-2 or 5-3 record in conference.  At 6-2, they would finish 2nd.  If they end up at 5-3, they'll probably be tied for third with the loser of the BYU-Utah game.