Independent Criticism

Here is a look at the criticism that BYU has faced for nearly going independent:

Arrogance
1) Is the move arrogant?  Absolutely.  But, as we learned, it is justified arrogance.  They put themseleves out to market and two conferences (the WAC and the West Coast Conference) were willing to take their non-football sports just to get them in the conference.  ESPN was willing to broadcast their games and pay them substantially more than they are currently receiving.  We'll look at revenue in more detail later, but suffice it to say here: BYU's TV contracts (for football alone) were going to be more than half of the entire MWC TV deal (which includes all sports).  That means the rights to their football games are worth more than the entire athletic programs of the other 8 schools, combined.  Yet they are treated "equally" and not given any special treatment whatsoever.
2) They are not Notre Dame.  Everybody knows that.  BYU admits as much.  But in order to improve on the status quo, they don't need to be Notre Dame.  Their deal with ESPN wouldn't have come close to Notre Dame's deal with NBC.  But it would have given them at least twice as much money and probably 10 times the exposure.  They don't need to be Notre Dame, they just need to continue being BYU, and they will be much better off than right now.  Also, people are always saying that BYU is no Notre Dame, but they are in a much better position than Army and Navy, the other two independents.  TV ratings and fan attendance are much greater for BYU than those two (with the exception of the Army-Navy game).

BCS Bowls
1) They move from "automatically qualifying for a BCS bid as a conference champion in the top 12" to "eligible for an at-large bid if they are in the top 14."  The fact of the matter is, at this point in time, if BYU goes 11-1 or 12-0, regardless of conference affiliation (or lack thereof), they will go to a BCS game.  Whether that is an automatic bid or an at-large bid is pretty irrelevant.  In the MWC, they have to split the automatic money in half, give half to the other non-BCS conferences, and then divide the remainder with the MWC.  As an independent, they get the same payday but without having to share it.  People use last year as an example: BYU was eligible for an at-large bid but was passed up by Florida, Boise State, and Iowa.  Those three teams were all way more deserving than BYU.  I don't think any rational person has a problem with those teams going over BYU.  If BYU was good enough to go 11-1 last season, maybe it's a different story, but they weren't good enough to do that.
2) With ESPN as a partner, they don't need anyone to lobby for them for greater access.  If BYU goes 11-1 with 4 appearances on ESPN or ESPN2 (plus the fact that BYU-TV is on Satellite everywhere in the country so people will have a chance to see them multiple times), they will have access if and when they deserve access.  They would probably play at least 5 ranked or BCS conference teams every year.  ESPN would probably set up one game to which Gameday would go.  That kind of exposure could move them up 2-3 spots in the polls, assuming they go 11-1.  If BYU is in the top 8, they will get an at-large.

Revenue
1) If the MWC sends a team to a BCS game, BYU goes to the Las Vegas Bowl, and BYU makes the NCAA Tournament along with 2 other MWC teams, BYU's take for TV revenue, bowl payouts, and NCAA Tournament money is just less than $3.5M.  ESPN offered more than that for 4 home football games.  Depending on what you believe, the total package for BYU sports was going to be worth AT LEAST twice that, probably somewhere in the $7-10M range.  This does not include bowl payouts or NCAA tournament money depending on which conference they end up in.  There is nothing the MWC could offer that is even close to comparable.
2) They miss out on BCS money if an MWC school goes to the BCS.  Boise State, TCU, and Utah have been the teams to bring home the BCS cash, not BYU, which they then share with the conference.  But we're talking about $500K a year for BYU if someone else goes to a BCS game.  Given the fact that they have at least doubled their revenue, it's still a multi-million dollar net gain without that half-million.
3) The jump to independence would rejuvenate their fan base, i.e. increase merchandise sales, donations, etc.  My wife used to work in the BYU Bookstore E-Commerce Department.  She said that sales essentially doubled over a weekend when BYU won as opposed to when they lost.  Now imagine the enthusiasm from going independent: it would have a much bigger effect than a single win.

No Bowl Tie-Ins
1) If they had joined the WAC in other sports, they would have had access to the WAC's bowl games, according to the pre-nup they had with the WAC.  Short of joining the Big XII, they would not have any bowl tie-ins.  There is no arguing that point.  They would go to a bowl game, because every year two or three conferences do not qualify enough teams: but this bowl would be less than desirable.
2) However, there will have to be a massive renegotiation in bowl contracts soon.  The Pac 12 and Big Ten are going to want more bowl games.  The Big XII will probably qualify fewer teams for bowls with their smaller league with fewer non-conference games.  If the WAC disappears, their bowl games open up (I believe there were four tie-ins for them).  The MWC has just grown in size and will need to find more bowls.  A large restructuring of the bowls is going to take place.  Some bowl is going to take a chance with BYU, especially given that ESPN would be a strong partner and ally of BYU's.

Exposure
1) Some wonder what would happen if BYU's "ESPN games" ended up on ESPNU, ESPN-Classic, or ESPN3.  Those are difficult stations to find.  However, having 5-6 games per year on The Mtn is even harder to find!  I could watch those games easier and cheaper than I can with The Mtn, CBS-CS, and Versus.
2) BYU's contract with ESPN would be for four home games.  However, take into account that most of BYU's road opponents will have a contract with ESPN as well, and you are looking at having perhaps as many as 6-8 games on national television (not counting BYU-TV games).
3) According to the agreement the WAC and BYU had, all other tournaments and BYU homes games could be on BYU-TV, meaning greater exposure for the network/BYU.  Imagine St. Mary's or Gonzaga traveling to Provo or having the West Coast Conference Basketball Tournament on BYU-TV (minus the championship game).  Tens-hundreds of thousands of people would discover BYU-TV.  Good for the University and good for the Church.

Scheduling
1) 12 games will be tough to get scheduled every year.  SDSU has already said they wouldn't schedule BYU (oh no, BYU will have to play Texas instead...).  However, figure that BYU could schedule Utah, Utah State, and Hawaii most years, at least 2 of the 3 independents would be willing, they were already scheduling 2 or 3 other non-conference games every year, and ESPN would help broker 2 games.  That's already at least 9 games.  Throw a I-AA game and a cash-strapped C-USA/MAC/Sun Belt team and they are nearly there.  Pulling all of that together for 2011 might be difficult, but for 2012 they could probably make those arrangements, even without help from the WAC.
2) Scheduling should get easier with ESPN as a partner and BYU-TV being available across the country.  Besides, after 4 or 5 years of decreased ticket sales (and that crappy new TV deal they'll get if/when BYU leaves), even MWC schools might come around and play BYU again.  They would probably even be willing to go to Provo to get some of that ESPN or BYU-TV money too!

On-Field Performance
1) They cannot lay eggs like they did against TCU and Florida State last season.  If ESPN puts 4 big games on TV, they need to be respectable in all 4 and probably win at least 2 of them.  If they don't perform, ESPN will not continue to broadcast them down the road.
2) BYU should be favored to win the MWC next season (2011).  If they go out as conference champions with a BCS game under their belt, that would bode much better for how much exposure they could get in 2012.  Given that the 2012 schedule will probably be softer than 2013 and beyond (tough to get big-name opponents on such short notice) and that BYU will have a very experienced team (based on the number of freshmen and sophomores on this year's two-deep), that's the best year to make the jump, if they make it.

Looking at all of the factors, I don't see how BYU considers the MWC a long-term solution.  They have seen the revenue out there awaiting them.  They have seen the amount of exposure possible with ESPN and BYU-TV.  I do not see how they can return to the MWC for much longer without serious concessions on the TV side, but even then, they cannot get near the money or exposure as a member of the MWC as they could as an independent.  Arrogant?  Yes, but they've shown the MWC (the country, i.e. the Big XII) that they have earned that right.  If the MWC won't acknowledge that fact, ESPN will.