After studying Holmoe's Education Week Q&A session and seeing the news about BYU inking a two-year deal with the University of Texas, Mo is ready to predict that BYU is going to leave the MWC (probably to be an independent) with an ESPN contract by the 2012 football season, if not for the 2011 season.
I have no sources. I have not talked to anyone in the know. But this is going to happen. Read between the lines!
5 reasons:
1) They cannot return to the MWC now, even if the conference made major concessions, which Craig Thompson has said he will not do anyway. You cannot get stabbed in the back like that and return, especially not when you are the gravy train.
2) Texas would not have inked a deal to play in Provo if the game were to be on the Mtn. or Versus. BYU (and probably ESPN) must have made assurances to Texas that the game will be broadcast on ESPN in primetime. That cannot happen in the MWC TV deal will not allow that.
3) Holmoe sounded extremely enthusiastic about BYU's broadcasting capabilities. He must have some intent to use them and the MWC TV deal will not allow that either.
4) Holmoe talked about how important of a partner ESPN is to be BYU. He has never said that about The Mtn. (and certainly not in the recent past). And, currently, ESPN and BYU are not official partners!
5) BYU has not announced anything. They have not confirmed their commitment to the MWC nor have they stated that they will stop researching independent status. Their silence means: we will not be two-faced like everyone else involved (except Utah State). "We will not say one thing today and do something else tomorrow (or 5 minutes from now behind your back...)." They will remain silent until they have something to announce. They are realigning those ducks and once they are back in a row, they will announce. Next week, maybe, but certainly before September 1, 2011.
What will the MWC TV deal look like after that? Hey, Comcast, we lost the Salt Lake market but we added Reno and Fresno (and their combined average attendance of 50,000). Or, sorry, Wyoming, we know you rely on BYU coming to town every other year to give you maximum ticket sales, but you voted to stab them in the back too, so stop complaining and just do a better job of marketing that Nevada game.
I should also predict that The Mtn. channel disappears within one year of BYU leaving the conference.
It is obvious this was done on the fly with no thought to the consequences. It was just a knee jerk reaction to what BYU told them. With the Y leaving the networks will want to rework the contract and can do so. They might even cancel the whole thing; after all their biggest market just left. They will certainly cut back the payout without the Utah schools. And except for BSU/TCU and maybe an AFA game what other games will CBS or Versus want to broadcast? This year they are doing half of BYU's games. There is a reason for that. The channel will not disappear unless they cancel the contract outright which I don't think they will do.
ReplyDeleteThink of all the money the schools are now going to lose with the Y leaving. They will lose over $100,000 per year on the TV contract, and that is assuming they will still get the $12M they now get, which is highly unlikely. They will lose about 10,000 fans for the BYU game plus concessions every other year; which would be $500K. In a couple of years all will know they were stupid to screw BYU; their big meal ticket. As good as TCU and BSU are they do not come close to the national following that the Y has; see lower TV ratings.
ReplyDeleteHey Mo! If BYU goes independent are you going to change the title of your blog to your home for independent football and start following Notre Dame too? Or you could call it the collapse of the MWC. The forgotten? (BYU) Just some ideas...
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