My Thoughts on the Media Poll, Part I

Well, since I was able to accurately predict the preseason poll with one exception, there couldn't have been too many surprises.  Here are my thoughts on why teams were ranked where they are and what questions they have coming into the season.

1.  TCU.  This is completely expected (and deserved!).  They were clearly the best team last year and they are bringing back a boatload of starters, more so than any other team in the conference.  They have a starting QB who has won 29 games as a starter (most in the nation) in Andy Dalton.  They have one of the most dynamic punt and kickoff returners in the country in Jeremey Kerley.  They always seem to have a defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally.  The only concern about TCU: can they handle the hype?  With no time to think about big games last year against BYU and Utah, they dominated.  With a month-plus to think about the Fiesta Bowl, they looked like a deer in the headlights.  Several years ago, they were coming off a strong season, preseason hype to the max, etc. and a rebuilding BYU team beat them by 14 in Fort Worth (and it wasn't even that close), on their way to a disappointing finish.  Again, can they handle the hype?  We'll see.  I believe they can and they will.
2. Utah.  Utah is ahead of BYU for 3 reasons: 1) speed, 2) returning QB, and 3) Pac 10 invitation.  All 3 are good reasons to assume Utah will finish higher than BYU in the standings.  Right now, Utah is the better team.  In November, they still might be the better team.  They certainly can recruit and develop NFL talent, consistently having as many guys drafted as the rest of the MWC combined.  First off, however, with all that superior talent, it hasn't necessarily turned into wins on the field: they have only managed 1 conference championship in the same time period TCU and BYU have each had 2.  They have only finished the season ranked in the top 25 twice in that period, with BYU managing that 4 times and TCU 3 times.  Secondly, they lost a lot: their top 6 tacklers on defense, two of the best OLs in program history, and several legitimate deep threat WRs, who were capable of playing at the next level.  Non-BCS programs don't just replace 6 NFL draft picks one year, after losing 4 the previous year.  (Of course, theoretically Utah isn't a non-BCS program anymore.)  Add to that a schedule that stands to be one of the toughest for a competitive non-BCS school, including road matchups at Iowa State, Air Force, Wyoming, and Notre Dame, with Pitt, TCU, and BYU all coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium.  Between October 30th and November 27th, they play at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and rival BYU (in perhaps the final BYU-Utah game ever).  I'd like to see Alabama go through that stretch and come out smelling like roses on the other side (not that they wouldn't go undefeated, I'm not an idiot, the SEC is extremely loaded and they ran it undefeated including a championship game against Florida, just to point out that even the mighty Crimson Tide would struggle through that).
Realistically, to have Utah at 2 and BYU at 3 is more of a default pick.  It speaks more to the LACK of depth in the league than to the quality of these two programs. Both schools have some major holes to fill as highlighted above for Utah, and below for BYU. However, there isn't any program in the conference, with the exception of Air Force, that has done enough the past few years to jump these schools, even in a rebuilding year.
3.  BYU.  No surprise that they are 3rd.  They haven't finished lower than third in 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall.  In fact, they've only finished lower than second once.  Even in a rebuilding year, of which they have had two in the Bronco Era (well, Year One was more of a building year than a REbuilding year), they are still competitive relative to the rest of the league.  They lost their all-time winningest QB (Max Hall), their all-time leading rusher (Harvey Unga), their all-time receptions leader (Dennis Pitta), their 2nd all-time in sacks (Jan Jorgensen), and the most visible player in BYU history (Coleby Clawson: don't tell me you didn't see his hit on Bradford 1,000 times last season!).  Oh, and they lost their starting FB, C, backup game-breaker TE, and 3 of the 4 starting LBs.  What is left to bring back?!?  Well, 4 of 5 linemen, plus 3 experienced/talented ones that missed last year because of injury.  All of their receivers.  3 of 4 guys in the secondary.  The biggest playmaking LB from last year's team.  Plus they have had some of their better recruiting classes ever the past three years.  Plus, several potential pieces are back from missions.  That's still a lot of POTENTIAL, i.e. question marks, and precisely why they are preseason #3.
4.  Air Force.  Personally, I am much higher on Air Force than this.  Given their continued solid performance against the bottom 5 in the league, all they really need to do is beat EITHER Utah or BYU, and they could compete for #2 in the league (they just need the one they don't beat to lose to somebody else).  Given the experience they have coming back in the secondary and on offense, the rebuilding the Utes and Cougars are doing, and the fact that both travel to Colorado Springs, this is the year (if it's ever going to happen, that is).  But again, because they haven't beaten BYU in the Bronco Era and only have 1 win against Utah in the Whit Era, you have to put them behind both of them in the preseason polls.  Well, at least the "experts" do.  I don't, and I can guarantee you that I won't have them behind both of them when I finally make my predictions, in about two weeks or so for those keeping track.  The biggest question mark for them is the same one we have every year: size on the defensive front.  The Air Force usually has 4 guys over 260 pounds in the entire academy: 1 of them doesn't play football and the other 3 are on the O-Line!  However, they are still a perennial 7-8 win team that goes to and competes well in a bowl game.  Given that BYU and Utah are down, maybe they can push up into the 9-win category and swoop into 2nd: that's all it would take.  They are one win away!

The bottom 5 to come later.