The New News

The only recent "development" in the MWC-WAC saga is actually something that didn't develop.  Utah State was extended an invitation to join the MWC, further proof of my theory that this was nothing but an attempt to destroy the WAC so BYU had nowhere else to go.  However, Utah State turned down that invitation, stating that they had made a commitment to the WAC, and to BYU, to join the WAC.  They also believed the $5 million buyout clause to be enforced, something Nevada and Fresno State shrugged off.  Further evidence of my theory: notice how ZERO mention has been made about the schedule, divisions, TV contract restructuring, etc.  They clearly didn't plan this as thoroughly as the Boise State invite, when they were able to pose at least some answer to those questions.  Now maybe they can't speak to that because the plan was to have 12 teams, but only 11 showed up to the party.  Do they invite Houston?  Or do they re-extend an invite to Utah State, now that the WAC commissioner has released all remaining WAC teams from the $5M buyout clause.

If the WAC can salvage a conference, BYU could still join, but I doubt the "revamped" WAC would be attractive enough for BYU to join.  They can go one of three places to find AT LEAST two schools: the Sun Belt, the MAC, and I-AA.  The Sun Belt is a geographic stretch: the conference already extends from Hawaii to Louisiana, and going to Alabama, Tennessee, or Florida doesn't make a whole lot of sense.  The same goes for the MAC, whose furthest west team is in Illinois.  There simply aren't two close I-AA schools that could make that transition.  Montana is the only western I-AA school currently capable of making the jump, and they just lost their head coach to UNLV...they also know that they would not be able to make the competitive jump.  They don't have the athletes, facilities, or the revenue to be a I-A program.

The other commonly mentioned conference for BYU non-football sports to land is the West Coast Conference, which has made overtures to BYU.  In men's basketball, this would be a great option, given the success of Gonzaga and the more recent success of St. Mary's.  Even Loyola Marymount won a game AT BYU a few years back, something only a handful of teams has done since.  WCC women's soccer and women's volleyball is also good.  However, there is something that the WAC could offer that the WCC can't: 4-6 football games every year to help BYU fill a 12-game schedule.  Scheduling was going to be tough anyway, but with the 4-6 WAC games each year, ESPN helping out, the other independent schools, and BYU's normal avenues of scheduling, it could have been done.  Now it's a very dicey proposition.

The other potential snag is that the WCC, a collection of mostly religious schools, plays the majority of its sports on Sunday.  Is BYU worth the hassle of rescheduling EVERY sport to them?  Add in the fact that, besides the no Sunday play, BYU would ask for other concessions surrounding broadcast rights.  BYU would come in demanding the world, but would only able to promise a few thousand tickets for its road games (doesn't help Gonzaga and St. Mary's which already do well in hoops attendance) and perhaps only a slight increase in TV revenue.  The reason I say only a slight increase in TV revenue is that basketball isn't the money-maker that football is and the dollars associated with strictly basketball packages has one less zero at the end of it.  Plus BYU would try to get as many of their home games on BYU-TV as possible or gain as much freedom in self-broadcasting as possible.  Once this is more fully explored, I expect the WCC to take a long, hard look at the dollars to see if this makes cents...maybe it is, maybe it isn't.  I don't know the numbers myself, so I don't know.  I would imagine we're talking about an extra $100,000 in TV revenue per school maximum (and probably more likely closer to half of that), plus an extra $15-20K in ticket revenue when BYU comes to town.

A lot of people seem to think this is going to happen still.  I just see the probability of it happening soon shrinking rapidly.  All of the ducks were lined up until the story leaked and the MWC issued their knee-jerk reaction, quite shrewdly, quite successfully, I might add.  The window for the 2011 season is very tight.  They may have to wait one more year to get this to happen, and it might be better to see how everything shakes out in the western US anyway.

One other thing is clear: any concessions BYU was hoping to get on the broadcasting rights for games is NOT going to happen now.  The Fresno State-BYU basketball game will not be broadcast under the TV deal, and BYU will not be allowed to show it on their own.  The MWC will forever clamp down on ANY attempt BYU makes to get self-broadcast rights either through KSL or BYU-TV.  This bad marriage between the cash cow and the other 10 is going to get filled with more bitterness, resentment, and hostility in the coming months.

BYU did prove, to some degree, that they are in demand.  ESPN reportedly offered them $1 million per game for 4 games in TV revenue.  That's substantial, especially for a non-BCS team!  They have shown that they have the ability to get their games out to the masses via their own platform.  I expect that, within two years, BYU will ultimately leave the MWC, whether that's to go independent or elsewhere.  This arranged marriage can only end badly.  It's just a matter of time before the ducks line up in a row again.  BYU will be more prepared to pull the trigger then BEFORE the story gets out.