A Look at UNLV

Offense: it's tough to determine how this group will handle an overhaul in the coaching staff.  Last year they couldn't run effectively.  Under Hauck, they may not even try to run at all.  They are a little green on the interior offensive line, and lack depth across the line, so that might bode well for them.  Their QB situation is pretty good, with an experienced starter and backup.  Phillip Payne is a touchdown maker at WR.  The bigger the stage, the better he plays.  Problem is: he's pretty much alone on the outside with no real big threats.  Without a running game, as with SDSU, it is more difficult to score TDs in the red zone.  We'll see how they do under Hauck.  He is well-schooled in scoring points and winning football games, but has had issues with discipline and player character.  Unfortunately, that may not be the best combination at UNLV.

Defense: they have a very experienced defense.  However, these guys were bad last year, particularly against the run, giving up 220 yards a game.  The pass defense wasn't anything to write home about either, giving up 235 per game.  One would think experience would play a role this year.  They are likely starting 9 seniors and 2 juniors, so you can't blame youth.  They have two 300-pounders up the middle, but they are the types to eat up blocks, not make plays.  Their LBs were surprisingly weak last season (usually UNLV has one or two studs there), which negates the man-eaters upfront.  They lost their only pass-rushing threat from last year, and even with him they were 106th in the country in sacks.  Their secondary, which returns 4 starters or guys with starting experience, only picked off 5 passes last season, which was tied for dead last in the country.  To recap: they couldn't stop the run (112th in the country), they couldn't pressure the QB (only 1.25 sacks/game), and they couldn't cover anybody (last in the country in INTs).  It's amazing they managed to go 5-7.  That must have been some offense.

Schedule: because they are playing at Hawaii, they have 5 non-conference games this year.  Wisconsin, at Idaho, Nevada, at West Virginia, and at Hawaii.  They could easily lose all 5 of those games.  The only ones they have a realistic chance is at Idaho and home against rival Nevada.  They always could pull off the upset in one of the other games, but I see this as a 1-4/0-5 type of season for them in the non-conference.

Their conference home games are New Mexico, TCU, Wyoming, and Air Force.  They will lose to TCU and Air Force.  They could beat New Mexico or Wyoming.  I'll say they split and go 1-3 at home in the MWC.

Their conference road games are Utah, CSU, BYU, and SDSU.  Utah and BYU are losses.  They could possibly split with CSU/SDSU.  1-3.  At best.

Outlook: unless Bobby Hauck drastically improves that defense (which I doubt, even in going to the I-AA National Championship Game last season at Montana, his defense was in the bottom half of the country in most defensive categories), it's tough to imagine them even approaching a bowl game.  They need 7 to get there.  I foresee maybe getting to 4.  But they will probably score a lot of points in the process!