A Look at TCU

Offense: 9 returning starters, kind of.  Their "starting" RB graduated, but TCU has always been a tailback by committee offense.  They had 4 guys rush for 600+ yards (including Andy Dalton), and 3 of them are back.  It's actually kind of ridiculous to think of how talented this offense should be.  They have 4 WRs back who had over 20 catches last season.  They have 2 RBs who averaged over 5 yards/carry back, with over 100 carries.  Andy Dalton has won 29 games as a starter, emerging in his freshman year and never looking back since.  They get good field position because of a solid defense and great kick/punt-returning.  Last year they scored 38 points/game.  It's tough to imagine that not happening again this year.  The only question marks on the offense: turnovers and an Andy Dalton injury.  They turned the ball over twice a game last year.  With their style of offense, Andy Dalton takes a lot of shots.  Last year, they had a former starting QB as the backup in Marcus Jackson.  This year, however, they don't have a backup QB with a collegiate pass attempt on the roster (I somewhat blame Gary Patterson for this: he plays his starters into the 4th quarter, regardless of the lead).  What happens if Dalton goes down?

Defense: they "only" return 7 starters here.  Although 9 of the projected starters from this year's defense have started and played significant minutes in the past.  Last year's defense was 5th in scoring defense, 6th in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 1st in total defense.  They will play slightly tougher offenses this season, so I anticipate those numbers going down, but, still, this is a nasty D.  They blitz from everywhere.  Their DBs can play man on just about anybody in the conference.  And if they can't, they either double the one guy they can't single cover and/or get in the QB's face so he can't see that guy.  They should finish in the top 10 in most of those statistical categories again.  The pass defense might be the only one that slips out of the top 10.

Schedule: the non-conference schedule is neutral site (in Dallas) vs. Oregon State, Tennessee Tech, Baylor, and at SMU on a Friday night.  Yes, all 4 games are in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.  I would anticipate them to beat Tech and Baylor, without incident.  Both Oregon State and SMU have a chance, however.  Still, at worst, they should be 3-1 in the non-conference, but more likely to be 4-0.  I don't think Oregon State or SMU has the horses in the first month of the season to pull off an upset.

Conference home games are Wyoming, BYU, Air Force, and SDSU.  They get Wyoming, BYU, and Air Force in a row (how's that for a scheduling quirk).  BYU is the only one that could challenge them, but, today, you have to think even that won't be much of a challenge.  Things could change tomorrow though.  Most likely they'll be 4-0 here.

Conference road games are CSU, UNLV, Utah, and New Mexico.  Utah is the only one that could challenge them here.  After beating them thoroughly throughout the game two years ago, Utah took advantage of a myriad of fourth quarter mistakes and beat them at Utah.  Last year, TCU exacted revenge on Utah at home, and it could have been worse than the 55-28 score.  Can they do it at Rice-Eccles again (but without the fourth quarter miscues)?  The big question with that game: what will be riding on it?  Right now, it appears the conference title and a potential BCS game will be.  However, anything can happen.  They should be 3-1 or 4-0.

Outlook: anything but a very solid season for 2010 would be surprising.  Big question, can they recover mentally if they lose a game?  They clearly have their sights on the National Championship, so if that is shot in the first week of the season, what will they do?  Or what happens if they lose Andy Dalton for the year early in the season?  I think the absolute worst they could do, even if everything went against them, would be 9-3.  Going 12-0 is difficult, even if you are the best team in every game you play.  I think they will win the MWC title, and I believe they'll probably end up going 11-1, good enough for another BCS game.