Thursday, August 21, 2014

Pac 12: Mo's 2014 Prediction

My model places the Pac 12 as the #2 conference in America behind the SEC.  How tough will the Pac 12 be this season?  My model has Stanford as the #5 team in America and my model predicts them to go 5-4 in Pac 12 play.  If Colorado or California can find a way to win 4-6 of their combined non-conference games, or steal a couple in conference play, according to my model, the Pac 12 would jump the SEC as the best conference in America.

Oregon 3
UCLA 4
Stanford 5
Arizona St 9
Washington 15
USC 16
Oregon St 30
Utah 51
Washington St 56
Arizona 61
Colorado 87
California 90

North
Oregon 8-1
Washington 7-2
Stanford 5-4
Oregon State 4-5
Washington State 2-7
California 1-8
South
UCLA 8-1
USC 7-2
Arizona State 7-2
Utah 3-6
Arizona 2-7
Colorado 0-9

I do not believe Colorado will go winless.  I do not see Utah getting all of the 3 Pac 12 wins my model predicts (though I think 3 is a good number, one upset and two of the three they "should" win).  Stanford plays at Washington, at Arizona State, at Oregon, and at UCLA.  They'll probably pull off one of those 4, but my model predicts 4 losses there, all by less than a TD.  UCLA hosts Oregon in the Pac 12 Title game (a rematch of an earlier game won by UCLA): UCLA wins and heads on to represent the Pac 12 in the Inaugural College Football Playoff as a 2/3 seed, my guess is against the SEC champion.  I've got to think Florida State runs the table and gets the #1 seed, in spite of a much easier schedule than every one else in the playoff.  The SEC champ, whether that's Auburn, Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, LSU, South Carolina, or Missouri, isn't going to go 13-0.

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