Breaking the alphabetical trend, I thought I’d jump to the Big Ten (or Fourteen) next. With a season-ending injury to Ohio State’s Braxton Miller, I thought I’d take a look at Ohio State and the rest of the Big Ten with him done-zo. First off, I don’t typically update my model to reflect injuries: too many teams and injuries to figure out the impact of every single one. Secondly, one look at Ohio State’s team vs. their schedule and he might be the difference in maybe one game in the regular season, two at the most. Their schedule is that easy.
As much as I hate to admit it Ohio State, with Braxton Miller, is a top 5 type of team. Without him, they are almost certainly still a top 25 type of team, if not higher than that. They are still coached by the (biggest jerk who happens to also be the) second-best college football coach in America. They still manage to pull in top recruits, year after year. They are the best team in the Big Ten with Braxton Miller, they are probably still the 2nd best team without him, at worst the 3rd. Even if they fell to 3rd, they only play one of the other two: a game at Michigan State that my model had them losing even with Miller. Their non-conference schedule should be a cake walk for an Urban Meyer-coached squad and the conference slate has them avoiding anyone of consequence from the other division.
Because it is a legitimate Heisman candidate, 3-year starting QB, and because it is Ohio State and Urban Meyer (and I love having any good reason to downgrade them), I will remove his aura from the model. I will tell you, however, my model had Ohio State at 11-1 before the injury and the model still projects 11 wins for Ohio State. Like I said, the schedule was that easy. It moves the comfortable wins into tighter affairs and a couple of what should have been good wins are a lot closer to toss-up territory as a result. There are 2 other potential tweaks I will make to my model before the season starts, but for now, here are the "rankings" of Big Ten teams relative to all of CFB.
| Michigan St | 11 |
| Wisconsin | 20 |
| Ohio St | 25 |
| Iowa | 34 |
| Indiana | 35 |
| Michigan | 37 |
| Minnesota | 41 |
| Nebraska | 49 |
| Maryland | 59 |
| Rutgers | 60 |
| Northwestern | 62 |
| Penn St | 64 |
| Illinois | 78 |
| Purdue | 93 |
Ohio State was #5 prior to the injury. Michigan State is no surprise near the top 10. Wisconsin should have another solid team. Iowa, Indiana, and Minnesota surprised me being rated as high as they are, but they are pretty seasoned teams that took some lumps playing younger players and this is the payoff season.
All in all, I think this will be one of the more balanced years we see throughout the Big Ten. I suppose that happens when the top is a little bit weaker than it traditionally is. Purdue and Illinois are really the only freebies, regardless of venue. Penn State, NW, Rutgers, Maryland will all be tough on the road.
The standings have changed with the additions of Rutgers and Maryland, so here is a quick recap of where everyone lines up this season:
East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West: Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue, Wisconsin
East (in order of projected finish)
Michigan State is stacked. They have an early season test on the road against Oregon, which will really test their young defense. After that, however, I suspect that Sparty wins every game by double digits. For as balanced as the conference is, the cream should rise to the top.
Ohio State will probably go 10-2 or better and Urban Meyer's amazing job recovering from the loss of Braxton Miller will be one of the storylines of the year. I think that storyline is awful, but ESPN will pound that into our heads all season long. The fact is the Big Ten isn't that difficult, Ohio State has a decent team, and there are 20-30 teams that could navigate the Buckeyes schedule 10-2/11-1.
Michigan hasn't been able to quite get over the hump under Brady Hoke. They may have some issues on the offensive line this season, particularly against Notre Dame, Michigan State, and Ohio State (model has 3 losses), but the rest of the schedule is manageable, a theme with the bigger Big Ten schools over the better part of the last 50 years. The model projects lots of close games for Michigan, so there is a chance to be upper echelon or a possibility of dropping to barely bowl eligible.
Indiana has an unfortunate schedule this season. They're going to lose to Michigan State regardless, but potentially winnable (for Indiana) games for them are mostly on the road: Iowa and Michigan. I think that makes it a season where the Hoosiers should make a bowl game, but the chance for one of those once in a blue moon seasons for them is slim. They have a lot coming back from a team that managed a 5-7 year. That is not a bad season in Indiana, actually. They don't have a storied history, but the future, at least for this year, looks good.
Penn State's bowl game is in Ireland the first week of the season. They aren't eligible for any real postseason play, so I admire the choice to get a game like this against UCF.
I don't expect Maryland to win many games after September. They have been trending in the right direction the past two seasons but I don't think they have the size upfront to sustain anything in their first time through the Big Ten.
Rutgers is coming into the Big Ten at as good a time as they could have in terms of their team. They are experienced and will only add more talent as their profile increases. The Scarlet Knights play one of the top 25 toughest schedules in the country and the toughest one in the Big Ten. They play multiple non-conference road games (a rarity for a Big Ten team: I guess they didn't get the memo) and their Big Ten crossover games are at Nebraska and at home against Wisconsin. My model puts them short of bowl eligibility b/c of the difficult schedule.
West (in order of projected finish)
Wisconsin figures to be a really good team this season. Outside of a neutral site game against a good, but beatable LSU team, the only challenge will be on the road at Iowa the 2nd to last game of the season. My model projects the winner of that game to win the division.
Iowa was the biggest surprise to me in my entire model. I had not anticipated a possible 10-win season from them but combination of a favorable schedule and a top 35 rankings puts that in reach. Every now and again they put together a great campaign and this looks like the season. Their crossover games are Indiana and Maryland (both projected wins). Their toughest in-division games are at Minnesota and the aforementioned home game against Wisconsin.
Nebraska has to travel to Fresno State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa. I guess they didn't get the memo about Big Ten scheduling either. It was bound to be somewhat of a rebuilding year anyway, but that schedule won't help appease the fan base that is already itching for a return to their former glory. They also play at Northwestern and the home game against Minnesota is no gimme either (especially if the Huskers already have 3 or 4 losses). Nebraska takes a step back in 2014.
Minnesota has as brutal a 4-game stretch as anyone in the Big Ten. They play Iowa and Ohio State at home before traveling to Nebraska and Wisconsin. They also play at TCU and Michigan. If they can pull off a 3-3 record in those games (certainly possible: my model has 4 of those 6 games playing out within a FG), I think we're looking at a top 25 type of team here.
When the schedule and the team align, Northwestern can do good things. I think the team has some experience and is capable of a few upsets. However, it'll be somewhat of an uphill battle to get to a bowl game this season b/c the schedule doesn't quite align. A couple of their "toss-up" games come on the road: they are losing to Wisconsin and Notre Dame regardless of venue.
Illinois has an experienced team but it's not a very good one. I think the best Illini fans could hope for is 2 wins in conference play, though my model projects just 1 (Purdue).
Purdue seems to be in constant rebuilding mode. My model projects a non-conference loss to CMU and a winless Big Ten campaign. I'd be shocked if they didn't pull off a 3rd win somewhere b/c I think their DL is actually pretty strong, but the model caps them at 2.
So the model predicts a Wisconsin-Michigan State Big Ten Title game, a not out-of-reach top 10 ranking for Ohio State, and a surprising Iowa team almost certainly bound for the top 20. As of now, Michigan State would be 4-point favorites over Wisconsin in that title matchup.
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