My rating system has the AAC, not surprisingly, as the 6th best conference. The average rating of AAC teams is 76.82 with Houston leading the charge, coming in as the 33rd best team in the country. The conference is weighed down by several sub-100 teams: SMU and Temple. Here are the ratings based on my model:
| Houston | 33 |
| UCF | 44 |
| ECU | 48 |
| Cincinnati | 53 |
| Tulane | 77 |
| USF | 81 |
| Connecticut | 82 |
| Tulsa | 98 |
| Memphis | 99 |
| SMU | 106 |
| Temple | 124 |
In addition to being the highest rated team, Houston also has a favorable conference schedule. They host #2 UCF, they avoid #3 ECU, and don't play Cincinnati until the final week of the season when they may already have the conference title wrapped up. Houston, to me, is a very dangerous team regardless of schedule. They took a few lumps with a true freshman at QB last season, but still finished a very respectable 8-5. They return 17 starters from that team. They are still quite young but not inexperienced. They have one of the top WRs in the country, in my opinion, in Deontay Greenberry and have a solid complement to him in the smaller, shiftier Daniel Spencer. They also return their entire rushing attack and a good portion of the OL. They have a reasonably difficult non-conference schedule, hosting UTSA (who is one of my sleeper picks this season), traveling to BYU, and hosting UNLV who is coming off their first bowl appearance in 13 years last season. My model calls for an undefeated run through conference play for them, with possibilities against UTSA and at BYU, it's not out of the realm of possibilities to see them a potential top 15 team.
UCF plays Penn State in Ireland, travels to Missouri, plays at Houston, before hosting BYU. They close the season at AAC#3 ECU. My model has them 8-4, 6-2 in AAC play. If that offense doesn't come around quickly, that defense will be under a lot of pressure to keep that loss total at 4 or less.
Cincinnati is a bit of a dark horse, in terms of the conference standings. They are one of the more experienced teams in the league and finished 9-4 last year. They get Houston and ECU at home, while avoiding UCF. Games at Ohio State and at Miami make it unlikely to see them hit the 10-win mark unless they pull off wins against both ECU and Houston. As it is, my model puts them 9-3, with a close win against ECU and a close loss against Houston rounding out a 7-1 conference season.
ECU travels to South Carolina and Virginia Tech, hosting North Carolina, in non-conference play. 1-2 wouldn't be too bad. They get UCF at home (3-point win) and travel to Cincinnati (3-point loss). 9-3, also 7-1 in AAC.
There is a huge dropoff after ECU in terms of quality of teams in the AAC. The next 6 in the conference come in two bunches, with Tulane, USF, and UConn. My model has Tulane and USF at an even 4-4 in conference play, with UConn going 3-5. The model has all 3 teams just a play or two within making a bowl game. Hard to belief this was a USF program that was ranked #2 in the country at one point a few years back (granted, that was a serious overevaluation of their abilities at the time, but pollsters have clout in college football and sometimes all they see is W-L record).
The final teams in the AAC are somewhat clumped together as well, with Tulsa, SMU, and Memphis just a few places apart in the rankings, with Temple a distant last. None of the three made a bowl game last year and my model predicts a similar outcome for this upcoming season. Temple is the closest pick to go 0-12, but an FCS game on the schedule probably gives them at least one win. The model does put them within striking distance in 2 games, so I guess one could say the model predicts 1 win, caps them at 3.
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