G5 Top 10

Now that the BCS is officially gone, the non-BCS schools get the moniker of G5 instead of non-BCS.  I guess I'll try to get used to this crazy new college football world we live in.  Normally, I would go through and pick my G5 top 10 on my own, but I put a lot of time and effort into the statistical quantification of my gut ("the model"), so I'll just go with my top 10 from the model, with one replacement, and some reshuffling.  The prediction for each of the teams is for 10+ wins this season.  One of the conference champions will get a chance in a major bowl game, but it's tough to imagine how that selection will go.  My money would be on Houston (or whichever other American Athletic Conference team manages an 11-1 record) strictly based on NIU's easy schedule and performance in their last BCS appearance.  Marshall would be a great story: a return to prominence for a fallen program, but again, the schedule is even easier than NIU's.

#1 BYU, 11-1
#2 NIU 12-0
#3 Marshall 12-0
#4 Houston 11-1
#5 UTSA 11-1
#6 Fresno State 10-2
#7 Louisiana 11-1
#8 Old Dominion 11-1
#9 Utah State 11-2
#10 Navy 10-2

UCF is actually #10 in the model, but, at 8-4 (where the model projects them), I don't think we'll see them in the rankings where a 10-3 or 11-2 Utah State or 10-2 Navy team would get more love.  Boise State is in a similar situation: I think they belong in the G5 top 10, but the model projects them with 3 losses prior to playing at Fresno in the MWC Title Game.  I don't envision a scenario where a 9-4 Boise State team gets more votes in any poll than one of these teams at season's end.

There are plenty of opportunities to watch these teams head-to-head to sort it out.  NIU, Navy, and Louisiana are the only teams that do not play someone else on the list.  BYU plays Houston and Utah State (or UCF if I leave them at #10).  I think Houston might be the best of the bunch, but the cream will rise.

A few other notes about the 2014 version of the model.  Last season, the biggest problem I had was that nearly every conference champion was projected to go 12-0 and the worst team in most conferences was predicted to go winless (or 1-11 if they played an FCS team).  That was not the case this season with just 4 undefeated teams: Florida State, Oklahoma, NIU, and Marshall.  Florida State will be tested at Louisville, Oklahoma plays its toughest games at home, NIU plays at Northwestern and Arkansas, and Marshall plays at ODU (and would face UTSA in CUSA Title Game) but has nothing else of consequence on the schedule for a top 50 type of team.  UMass is the only team projected 0-12.  That's a step in the right direction.

Usually, I use the model to find those teams that are poised to have a good year that no one is really talking about (although, these days, the G5 teams are getting less love than they have in a decade, so no one is talking about any of them).  The conferences all had at least one team that surprised me and may very well be the storylines as we head into December.
American: East Carolina
ACC: Duke
Big Ten: Iowa
Big 12: Texas and TCU
CUSA: UTSA and ODU
MAC: Toledo and Buffalo
MWC: Nevada
Pac 12: Washington
SEC: Ole Miss (though same thing happened last year...)
Sun Belt: Louisiana
Independents: Navy (aided by easy schedule) and BYU

Most of these teams are not traditional powers in their conferences.  It would be nice if this played out as my model suggests.  I think the underdog is good for college sports.  Baseball fans who don't cheer for the Yankees tend to hate the Yankees.  It's the same in college football: those tired of the usual guard at top will always cheer incessantly for a dog from the bottom!