I have been feverishly working, day and night, the past two weeks on my pre-season rankings. I guess it's more of a tool to predict team's records than an actual ranking system. Because it is a data-driven analysis, I often end up with random Sun Belt or CUSA teams in my "top 25" (teams that my model predicts to win their conferences tend to move up in these rankings, which is why I don't consider them rankings as much as predictive indicators). Realistically for me, it's more about trying to figure out what teams are going to perform and what ones will be sitting home in late December/early January, who might surprise this season, and how BYU is likely to do. I am ultimately just trying to quantify my gut. However, in putting together data for all 128 FBS teams, I see and learn a lot about teams. So here are a few random observations.
If you ask the average Big Ten or College Football fan who is going to have more success early in their Big Ten tenure, Maryland or Rutgers, 9 out of 10 would probably say Maryland. After combing through a lot of information about the two teams, I think that's probably a Herbstreit-level analysis. If you go into any kind of detail at all about the teams, at worst, it's not a clear cut answer, at best, Rutgers is better poised for immediate success. Some times, it is all about timing and situation. Both teams appear to have challenging schedules as they transition to new conferences. Rutgers is coming into it with more experienced (but still young in some cases) QB, offensive line, and defense (which are 3 very important items in the Big 10). Their more winnable games are at home and the games they were going to lose anyway are on the road, where the reverse is true for Maryland. The first two years, if I had to guess, Rutgers would be the team to get more wins. In year one, it may come down to the winner of the regular season finale between the two teams...
I never thought I would say this but I think the SEC may actually be amazingly good from the top all the way to the bottom. Kentucky and Tennessee should be practically free wins but they still have the ability to surprise, Vanderbilt probably won't be that challenging but is coming off the greatest stretch of football in school history, and Arkansas has massive OL/DL to contend with, even in the absence of quality skill position players. Everyone else could have a legitimate chance to see the top 25 this season. There are 6 teams I believe have a shot, if the ball bounces their way, to be in the top 10. Obviously, it's the SEC, so any team that wins 9 games will receive top 10 love from pollsters, but this year, I think the league is strong enough top-to-bottom, and through the middle, to warrant that love.
The Pac 12 went out and scheduled. My model puts 7 of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country in the Pac 12 (the other three in the top 10 are Notre Dame, Arkansas, and Tennessee). 9 of the 12 Pac 12 schools play more difficult schedules than the AVERAGE SEC schedule. Washington plays the easiest schedule with an FCS team, the worst FBS team (according to my model), and add a bad Big Ten team in Illinois, but they also play 13 regular season games b/c they start at Hawaii.
It's going to be a tight squeeze in that 4-team playoff. The Pac 12 and SEC champs are almost certainly guaranteed. I'm not as sure about the other 3 conference champions. From the ACC, Florida State is the only possibility, though their SOS might hold them back b/c their ACC slate is so weak. From the Big Ten, Ohio State would be almost certain, Michigan State's schedule is worse than Florida State's, and no one else is probably good enough to knock off one of those two. From the Big XII, any undefeated team theoretically has a chance, but Oklahoma is the only team good enough, with an easy enough schedule, to do it. It'll be interesting to see how important Strength of Schedule ends up being in determining the playoff contenders. I think it'll end up being SEC and Pac 12 champs and, by default, 2 other conference champs, assuming the choices are obvious. It's not entirely out of the realm of possibilities to see one of those conferences snubbed in favor of a 2nd Pac 12 or SEC team. Looking at schedule strength, which the Committee supposedly will, that is probably what SHOULD happen (but won't).
Final observation tonight: I love college football and can't wait for it to start. We are just 2 weeks away from the opening kickoff. Wednesday or Thursday night, I'll try to put out my conference and division champs.
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