BYU never likes to make it easy on themselves. 2 more players/starters have been suspended for tomorrow's season opener against UConn. I'm going to say what I've been telling people for weeks: it's UConn. If BYU is ANY good at all, the injuries and suspensions to a half dozen skill position starters should not matter one lick. BYU should be able to absolutely maul UConn in the trenches.
Connecticut is big but untested on both lines. BYU is big and quite experienced, a little less so on the defensive side of the ball. In terms of the skill positions, the injured and suspended players gave BYU a distinct advantage on the outside as well as at the point of attack. Now the advantage is gone, but shouldn't become a disadvantage. From my perspective, the backups should be as good as UConn's starters. BYU has out-recruited UConn for years. The place where BYU might be in trouble is in terms of fatigue or injury which would force the (now) backups (former 3rd stringers) into action. I don't think I like BYU's 3rd string against UConn's 1st string. But I think the 2nd string should hold their own.
UConn is just not a good football team. They have had two decent seasons in their entire football existence (and by decent I mean they went 8-5 in a watered-down Big Least). And that was 2 coaches ago. They will be better than last season's 3-9 team. But if BYU fans believe their team has what it takes to win 9/10 games this season, this is a walk in the park.
What I sense from BYU fans is that they really aren't sold on the state of the program right now. There are plenty of blue-goggled folks who want to bestow apostleship on Bronco. I'm not talking about those folks. I have said the entire off-season, BYU is one more mediocre season from losing the fan base. A loss, or even a tight battle, against UConn would be the first step down that path.
Some BYU fans think the betting line is too big. Here's how I see it: BYU's O should put up 27 points. With Taysom Hill, an experienced OL, 2/3 decent RBs, and a wide variety of skillsets at WR/TE, 4 TDs (or 3 TDs and 2 FGs) should not be very hard against a team that gave up over 30 points/game last season, while only playing 3 teams with offenses as good as BYU's. New season, new coach, new system, same players. They had a lot of improvement to make; they probably made quite a bit. But BYU should score 27 points at least. There wasn't enough time to improve that much.
This was also an offense that struggled to do much last season. They lost a lot on the offensive line. They are playing the two-QB system game. I have seen this work only once and I've seen it fail many times. Many coaches fear making the wrong choice when it's close between 2 guys. I say, if you choose to play 2 QBs, you guarantee that you made the wrong choice. You cannot be right! As such, UConn should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently, even against a secondary down 2 starters. 13 points, maybe 17. That's about as much as their O should score against a BYU D that figures to be down a bit this season, particularly against the run.
Special teams and turnovers can also play roles in scoring, but taking those out of the equation: BYU should score 27+, UConn should score 17 or less. In season opening games, there is a very fine line between scoring 21 and 35: a penalty here, a dropped pass there. But if the BYU offense is clicking, it doesn't take much time for 27 to become 38 or 41. If the two QB system implodes for UConn (which it will eventually this season, just don't know if that's the first game or not), then even 17 becomes a tough number to hit.
My best estimate for Friday night at UConn: BYU 34, UConn 13.
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