After spending hours and hours over weeks and weeks, I got my model ready and got data entered for all 128 FBS teams. I then tested out the variables trying to quantify my gut. I usually pick the 5 teams I know the most intimately and benchmark my model's results against what I think about their season. I tweak the model until it matches for at least 4 out of the 5 teams. Last season, I managed to hit all 5 with the exact win-loss records I felt were appropriate for their season. This season, I could only manage to hit 4 of them. No matter how I altered my model, I could never get BYU to hit the 9-10 win mark, which is where I think they will probably land. Perhaps my model knows something that I don't.
Here is a look at BYU's opponents and how they fare in the model, from toughest game to easiest game.
1. Texas
Rating: 10
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: OL
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: Texas by 7
2. UCF
Rating: 44
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: 2013 Record
Game result: BYU by 8
3. Boise State
Rating: 47
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB/OL
Greatest strength: 2010-2013 Results
Game result: BYU by 10
4. Houston
Rating: 33
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: DL
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 13
5. Utah State
Rating: 55
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: # of offensive starters returning
Greatest strength: QB
Game result: BYU by 23
6. Connecticut
Rating: 82
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: DL
Game result: BYU by 25
7. Middle Tennessee
Rating: 85
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: QB
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 27
8. California
Rating: 90
Location: Road
Biggest weakness: # of projected senior starters
Greatest strength: recruiting
Game result: BYU by 29
9. Nevada
Rating: 74
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 31
10. Virginia
Rating: 86
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: 2013 Conference Record
Greatest strength: # of defensive starters returning
Game result: BYU by 36
11. UNLV
Rating: 88
Location: Home
Biggest weakness: Coach win %
Greatest strength: OL
Game result: BYU by 37
12. Savannah State
Rating: FCS
Game result: BYU by 55
So, there it is, my model predicts BYU to go 11-1, playing Texas reasonably close on the road and beating every body else without too much difficulty. I couldn't move the needle no matter how I played with the model. I think that is partially a reflection of BYU and partially a reflection of the opponents. The model likes BYU. They have won a fair amount of games over the past 4 seasons, they have an experienced QB behind an experienced OL, they have a lot of starters coming back on both sides of the ball, they have a lot of seniors expected to contribute, and Bronco Mendenhall has a reasonably high career winning percentage.
I thought the model would like Houston, UCF, and Boise State a bit more than it does. I think Houston is going to be absolutely explosive on offense. UCF's defense may not be statistically as good as last season's dominant group b/c their offense won't help them out as much (BYU fans can relate to this), but they will probably be an all-around better defense and BYU may find it tough to drive down the field against them and will be hoping for big plays.
I think Boise State has been trending downward for 2 years now, Chris Peterson got out while he still could and I think we'll see one or two more seasons of 10 wins before Boise falls down to that 7-10 wins/season range. It will be tough to win on the blue turf, but my model doesn't think as much of Boise's team this particular season: there certainly are questions on offense and the undersized front 7 might not stand up for the duration of this season against a very run-heavy schedule. Boise State will face 7 consecutive "run-first" teams, with only one bye, before meeting BYU. BYU also gets them on a short week following the Broncos' rivalry game against Fresno State where my model projects BYU will be coming off a 31-point victory over Nevada.
I'm not sure I 100% like the results for games listed as 2-4 above, but I can wrap my ahead around all of the projections and feel good about #1 and 5-12. Is it Friday yet?
Eleven and one would be awesome, but would it get them into the BSC/playoff discussion?
ReplyDeleteWoah - hard to see that many dominating victories on the horizon. Bronco doesn't really allow us to beat anyone by 30. Interesting stuff - thanks, Mo.
ReplyDeleteI thoroughly enjoy this web site and would love to see their statistical analysis...
Deletehttp://www.collegefootballpoll.com/analysis_ind_byu.html
Playoff discussion: no chance. In terms of the major bowl games, unlikely but possible. The highest ranked G5 (non-BCS) conference champion is guaranteed a spot in one of the games, BYU is not. However, now there is a committee to decide the matchups in the major bowls so here is a chance BYU nabs one of the 5 at-large spots at 11-1.
ReplyDeleteTJ: agreed. This year, I liked most everything in my model except for BYU's results. 11-1 is possible, and I could see us winning a lot of games by 3-4 scores but I don't see so many 4+ TD wins and 11 total wins seems 1 or 2 too high.