Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Tuesday Tidbits

Strength of Schedule: now that Boise State has won their biggest game of the season, most traditionalists mock the remainder of their schedule.  Here's my two cents.  First, yes, it isn't the most difficult last 11 games.  There are probably about 30 teams that could survive the last 11 games on Boise State's schedule without a loss.  Although, Hawaii and Utah State both played juggernaut programs quite well in week one, with USC and at Oklahoma, respectively.  Fresno State beat two-time defending Big East champion Cincinnati by two TDs.  Oregon State played a de facto road game against a top ten opponent and nearly came out with a W.  So, it's not as easy as one might think.  It certainly isn't hard.  I'll concede that 30 teams in the country would go undefeated with those last 11 games.
However, how many teams could survive the first game of the season against Virginia Tech at a "neutral" site?  As a side note, that neutral site held over 15,000 more Virginia Tech fans than their home stadium would have.  In order for any team to compete in that hostile environment in week one, they would probably need to have top 20 talent.  That eliminates at least 10 of our original 30.  No Big East team could do it (Cincinnati, Pitt, and UConn all lost.  West Virginia wasn't even man enough to play a I-A school in week one).  Given that Va Tech wins the ACC every year, I'm going to go out on a limb and say no ACC could do it.  In the Big Ten, the only teams that COULD do it all played easy first week games, so we'll never know if they were up to the task out of the gate.  At least Wisconsin went on the road to frost their cupcake.  The Big XII has Texas and Oklahoma, who both struggled against teams much less than Virginia Tech.  The SEC: Florida is out, they barely got 200 yards against a MAC team in the Swamp.  Ole Miss is definitely out after losing at home to a I-AA squad.  LSU barely beat a depleted UNC team on a truly neutral field.  Maybe Georgia.  Alabama gets a pass after last season's neutral site opening week win against the Hokies.  Pac 10: Oregon could have given them a game.  USC is undecided after giving up nearly 600 yards and 36 points to Hawaii.  Mountain West: TCU had their neutral site game against a lesser opponent than Va Tech and they had the home field advantage, and they needed a late safety to seal the deal.  Utah needed OT to sink a perennially overrated Big East "contender."  BYU survived a scare at home against a Washington program only 20 months removed from an 0-12 season.
So yes, a few dozen teams could finish Boise State's schedule 11-0, but just a few teams in the entire country could have started 1-0.
Besides, who is to say Boise State couldn't go 11-1 with Alabama's schedule or in the Big XII?  That's all they would need to do in those conferences to make the national championship game.  Can they compete week in, week out?  Maybe, maybe not.  But until four quality teams are man enough to play them in the non-conference, we'll never see how they could compete a month straight against top competition.

Injury update: Brandon Bradley will be back as the field corner for BYU in the Air Force game.  Reggie Rembert, however, will not suit up at DB for the Academy.  This is a shame as I would have loved to see one of the best corners in the MWC go up against the best group of WRs BYU has had at least since the 80's, if not ever.
Jordan Wynn is listed as day-to-day.  Should he miss the start at QB for Utah against UNLV on Saturday, the Utes will have to commit more to the run, which should be their game plan anyway after UNLV was gashed for 278 rushing yards against Wisconsin.  I would recommend a steady dose of Eddie Wide, perhaps as many as 20 carries for him.  He continues to be more impressive between the 20's than Matt Asiata.  Then bring the hammer in for the red zone.

Position battles: BYU QBs played about as even as you could expect.  Riley Nelson had the better first half.  Jake Heaps had the better second half.  Both threw for the same yardage.  Both led two scoring drives (Nelson with 2 TDs and Heaps with 2 FGs, which I blame on play-calling, not lack of execution).  It looks like we'll see more of the two QB system.  BYU played 4 TEs against Washington.  I thought Mike Muehlmann had a great game run-blocking (Marcus Mathews wasn't bad either) and Richard Wilson clearly had the best game catching the ball.  I think we'll start to see those two play more: Bronco was waiting for someone to step up, and those two at least approached the stairs.  The injured Devin Mahina did not play in the game.  The two MLB positions (called Mike and Buck by the defense) saw 5 guys play, although I don't recall seeing Stout do much, so perhaps he only played on special teams (anyone verify this?).  Shane Hunter and Aveni Leung-Wei led the way, but Brandon Ogletree and Austin Jorgensen were also in on a few plays.

The Platoon System: playing two QBs worked really well for BYU in game one.  Comparing BYU's all-time winningest QB, Max Hall, to the production of these two, and there wasn't much, if any, difference (and that was done without Pitta, Unga, George, or Collie, four guys earning NFL paychecks).  60% completion rate, 262 yards, and two TDs.  However, I am not sure it is sustainable for the following specific reasons, besides just that everybody says it can't work (because it worked for Florida in Tebow's freshman year).  1. What happens when one of them gets sacked, throws a pick, or fumbles?  They both played flawless in that respect in game one, which won't last forever.  Will the rotation continue?  Will one guy lose confidence if he is the first to "break serve?"  2. How do you determine who leads the two-minute drill at the end of the first half, or the end of the game?  Does the person you entrust with that responsibility not automatically become the unquestioned leader of the offense?  Or do you alternate who does that as well?  And, even more importantly, you need your QB to have a little ego.  Both guys say they want to do what's best for the team, but BYU fans should want a guy that WANTS the ball in the fourth quarter with the game on the line, not a guy who will take it, you know, if it's best for the team.  3. What if an opponent is better suited to stop one particular style of quarterback better?  Do you still split time?  Air Force, Nevada, and Utah State are going to stop a running QB better, so does Heaps play more in those games?  Florida State, TCU, and Utah are going to harrass a statue, pocket-passer, so do you turn to Nelson more in those games?  Or do you still split time?  They don't have to choose one, because it's a benefit to have two.  But there are situations that are going to call for one over the other.  Will BYU coaches have the courage, and Nelson/Heaps the continued humility, to break up the alternating series rotation?

The New Big XI: rumors were flying today that the Big XII was going to invite an 11th team to join the conference.  After an outstanding performance over the weekend, North Dakota State nearly became the 11th member of the Big XII.  K, just kidding.

Pac 12 Homer-Alert: if you check out the power rankings at ESPN, one voter has Utah in their top 10.  Pac 10 blogger Ted Miller was the lone Utah man (I would place Utah top 20 right now, but nowhere near the top 10).  Of course, he also has Stanford and Arizona in his top 20, one of only 3 voters to have Arizona in the top 20, at number 16 in his ballot (more than half of the voters didn't even have Arizona in their top 25).  Congratulations, Ted Miller, you have successfully adapted the Pac 10 arrogance.

1 comment:

  1. Good comments; I have the same questions on what they will do when someone makes a mistake.

    ReplyDelete